Sawford Kate, do Karmo Antonino, da Conceicao Felisiano, Geong Maria, Tenaya I Wayan Masa, Hartawan Dinar H W, Toribio Jenny-Ann L M L
Farm Animal & Veterinary Public Health, Faculty of Veterinary Science, University of Sydney, 425 Werombi Road, Camden, New South Wales 2570, Australia; Local Land Services, 42 Ryrie Street, Braidwood, New South Wales 2622, Australia.
National Directorate of Livestock and Veterinary Services, Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, Dili, Timor-Leste.
Prev Vet Med. 2015 Nov 1;122(1-2):99-106. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2015.09.012. Epub 2015 Sep 25.
Classical swine fever virus (CSFV) is a highly infectious pathogen of pigs and believed to be a major constraint to pig production in Timor-Leste. The Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries conducts vaccination campaigns in an attempt to control clinical disease, however, there is no empirical data available concerning the seroprevalence and distribution of CSFV in Timor-Leste. To help address this knowledge deficit, a cross-sectional study to determine seroprevalence was conducted in the three districts that border Indonesia. Data on farmer- and pig-level factors were also collected to look at their impact on CSFV serological status. Overall, true CSFV seroprevalence was estimated at 34.4%. Seroprevalence estimates varied widely between and within districts, subdistricts, and villages. Older pigs and pigs that had been vaccinated for CSFV were more likely to test positive for CSFV antibody. Pigs owned by farmers that experienced the sudden death of pigs in the 12 months prior to the survey were more likely to test positive for CSFV antibody, while pigs that had been sick in the previous three months were less likely to test positive for CSFV antibody. The final multivariable model accounted for a large amount of variation in the data, however, much of this variation was explained by the random effects with less than one percent of the variation explained by the fixed effects. This work further supports the need for a collaborative approach to whole-island CSFV control between West Timor, Indonesia and Timor-Leste. Further work is needed to better understand the risk factors for CSFV serological status in order to allocate resources for control. As CSFV is now endemic in Timor-Leste research involving a combination of serology, antigen detection and in-depth investigation of suspect cases over a period of time may be required.
经典猪瘟病毒（CSFV）是猪的一种高度传染性病原体，被认为是东帝汶养猪业的主要制约因素。农业和渔业部开展疫苗接种运动以控制临床疾病，然而，关于东帝汶CSFV的血清流行率和分布情况尚无实证数据。为了填补这一知识空白，在与印度尼西亚接壤的三个地区开展了一项横断面研究以确定血清流行率。还收集了农户和猪层面的因素数据，以研究它们对CSFV血清学状况的影响。总体而言，估计CSFV的实际血清流行率为34.4%。血清流行率估计值在不同地区、分区和村庄之间及内部差异很大。年龄较大的猪和接种过CSFV疫苗的猪更有可能检测出CSFV抗体呈阳性。在调查前12个月内经历过猪突然死亡的农户所饲养的猪更有可能检测出CSFV抗体呈阳性，而在前三个月生病的猪检测出CSFV抗体呈阳性的可能性较小。最终的多变量模型解释了数据中的大量变异，然而，大部分变异是由随机效应解释的，固定效应解释的变异不到1%。这项工作进一步支持了印度尼西亚西帝汶和东帝汶采取全岛协作方法控制CSFV的必要性。需要进一步开展工作以更好地了解CSFV血清学状况的风险因素，以便为防控分配资源。由于CSFV目前在东帝汶呈地方流行，可能需要开展一段时间内结合血清学、抗原检测和对疑似病例进行深入调查的研究。
