Sawford Kate, Geong Maria, Bulu Petrus M, Drayton Emily, Mahardika Gusti N K, Leslie Edwina E C, Robertson Ian, Gde Putra Anak Agung, Toribio Jenny-Ann L M L
Farm Animal & Veterinary Public Health, Faculty of Veterinary Science, University of Sydney, 425 Werombi Road, Camden, New South Wales 2570, Australia; Greater Sydney Local Land Services, Level 4, 2-6 Station Street, Penrith, New South Wales 2750, Australia.
Animal Health & Veterinary Services, Provincial Department of Livestock, East Nusa Tenggara Province, Kupang, West Timor, Indonesia.
Prev Vet Med. 2015 May 1;119(3-4):190-202. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2015.02.002. Epub 2015 Feb 11.
Classical swine fever virus (CSFV) is a highly infectious disease of pigs. It has had significant impacts on East Nusa Tenggara, eastern Indonesia since its introduction in 1997. In spite of its importance to this region, little is known about its seroprevalence and distribution, and pig-level and farmer-level factors that may have an impact on the serological status of an individual pig. To address this knowledge deficit, a cross-sectional seroprevalence survey was conducted in 2010 involving 2160 pigs and 805 farmers from four islands in the region. Farmer questionnaires and pig record forms were used to collect data about the farmers and pigs surveyed. Blood was collected from each pig to determine its CSFV serological status. Apparent and true prevalence were calculated for each island, district, subdistrict, and village surveyed. CSFV serological status was used as an outcome variable in mixed effects logistic regression analyses. Overall true CSFV seroprevalence was estimated at 17.5% (lower CI 16.0%; upper CI 19.5%). Seroprevalence estimates varied widely across the islands, districts, subdistricts, and villages. Manggarai Barat, a district on the western end of Flores Island, contained pigs that were positive for antibody to CSFV. This result was unexpected, as no clinical cases had been reported in this area. Older pigs and pigs that had been vaccinated for CSFV were more likely to test positive for antibody to CSFV. The final multivariable model accounted for a large amount of variation in the data, however much of this variation was explained by the random effects with less than 2% of the variation explained by pig age and pig CSFV vaccination status. In this study we documented the seroprevalence of CSFV across four islands in East Nusa Tenggara, eastern Indonesia. We also identified risk factors for the presence of antibody to CSFV. Further investigation is needed to understand why clinical CSFV has not been reported on the western end of Flores Island, and to identify additional risk factors that explain CSFV serological status to inform disease control strategies.
经典猪瘟病毒（CSFV）是猪的一种高度传染性疾病。自1997年传入以来，它对印度尼西亚东部的东努沙登加拉产生了重大影响。尽管它对该地区很重要，但对其血清流行率和分布以及可能影响个体猪血清学状态的猪层面和农户层面因素了解甚少。为了弥补这一知识空白，2010年进行了一项横断面血清流行率调查，涉及该地区四个岛屿的2160头猪和805名农户。使用农户问卷和猪记录表格收集有关被调查农户和猪的数据。从每头猪采集血液以确定其CSFV血清学状态。计算了每个被调查岛屿、地区、分区和村庄的表观流行率和真实流行率。在混合效应逻辑回归分析中，将CSFV血清学状态用作结果变量。总体真实CSFV血清流行率估计为17.5%（下限置信区间16.0%；上限置信区间19.5%）。各岛屿、地区、分区和村庄的血清流行率估计差异很大。弗洛雷斯岛西端的曼加赖巴拉特地区的猪对CSFV抗体呈阳性。这一结果出乎意料，因为该地区此前未报告过临床病例。年龄较大的猪和接种过CSFV疫苗的猪更有可能检测出CSFV抗体呈阳性。最终的多变量模型解释了数据中的大量变异，然而，其中大部分变异是由随机效应解释的，猪龄和猪CSFV疫苗接种状态解释的变异不到2%。在本研究中，我们记录了印度尼西亚东部东努沙登加拉四个岛屿的CSFV血清流行率。我们还确定了CSFV抗体存在的风险因素。需要进一步调查，以了解为什么弗洛雷斯岛西端没有报告临床CSFV病例，并确定其他解释CSFV血清学状态的风险因素，为疾病控制策略提供依据。
