Nortey Ezekiel N N, Ansah-Narh Theophilus, Asah-Asante Richard, Minkah Richard
Department of Statistics, University of Ghana, Box LG 115, Legon, Ghana.
Ghana Space Science and Technology Institute (GSSTI), Ghana Atomic Energy Commission (GAEC), Box AE 1, Atomic Kwabenya, Ghana.
Springerplus. 2015 Sep 18;4:525. doi: 10.1186/s40064-015-1310-2. eCollection 2015.
Although, there exists numerous literature on the procedure for forecasting or predicting election results, in Ghana only opinion poll strategies have been used. To fill this gap, the paper develops Markov chain models for forecasting the 2016 presidential election results at the Regional, Zonal (i.e. Savannah, Coastal and Forest) and the National levels using past presidential election results of Ghana. The methodology develops a model for prediction of the 2016 presidential election results in Ghana using the Markov chains Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology with bootstrap estimates. The results were that the ruling NDC may marginally win the 2016 Presidential Elections but would not obtain the more than 50 % votes to be declared an outright winner. This means that there is going to be a run-off election between the two giant political parties: the ruling NDC and the major opposition party, NPP. The prediction for the 2016 Presidential run-off election between the NDC and the NPP was rather in favour of the major opposition party, the NPP with a little over the 50 % votes obtained.
尽管有大量关于预测选举结果程序的文献，但在加纳仅使用了民意调查策略。为填补这一空白，本文利用加纳过去的总统选举结果，开发了马尔可夫链模型，用于预测2016年地区、分区（即萨凡纳、沿海和森林地区）以及全国层面的总统选举结果。该方法使用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗（MCMC）方法和自助估计法，开发了一个预测2016年加纳总统选举结果的模型。结果显示，执政的全国民主大会党（NDC）可能会以微弱优势赢得2016年总统选举，但无法获得超过50%的选票而被宣布为直接获胜者。这意味着两个主要政党——执政的全国民主大会党和主要反对党新爱国党（NPP）之间将进行决选。对全国民主大会党和新爱国党之间2016年总统决选的预测更倾向于主要反对党新爱国党，该党获得了略超过50%的选票。
