Memory strength versus memory variability in visual change detection.

Observers made change-detection judgments for colored squares in a paradigm that manipulated the retention interval, the magnitude of change, and objective change probability. The probability of change judgments increased across the retention interval for “same” and “small-change” test items but stayed the same or decreased for “large-change” and “far” test items. A variety of formal models were fitted to the individual-subject data. The modeling results provided evidence that, beyond changes in visual-memory precision, there were decreases in memory strength of individual study items across the retention interval. In addition, the modeling results provided evidence of a zero-information, absence-of-memory state that required guessing. The data were not sufficiently strong to sharply distinguish whether the losses in memory strength across the retention interval were continuous in nature or all-or-none. The authors argue that the construct of memory strength as distinct from memory variability is an important component of the nature of forgetting from visual working memory.