Srivastava Nisheeth, Schrater Paul
Dept of Psychology, UC San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States of America.
Depts of Psychology & Computer Science, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2015 Oct 23;10(10):e0141129. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0141129. eCollection 2015.
We have developed a method for learning relative preferences from histories of choices made, without requiring an intermediate utility computation. Our method infers preferences that are rational in a psychological sense, where agent choices result from Bayesian inference of what to do from observable inputs. We further characterize conditions on choice histories wherein it is appropriate for modelers to describe relative preferences using ordinal utilities, and illustrate the importance of the influence of choice history by explaining all major categories of context effects using them. Our proposal clarifies the relationship between economic and psychological definitions of rationality and rationalizes several behaviors heretofore judged irrational by behavioral economists.
我们已经开发出一种方法,可从所做选择的历史记录中学习相对偏好,而无需进行中间效用计算。我们的方法推断出在心理意义上合理的偏好,即主体的选择源于根据可观察输入对该做什么进行的贝叶斯推断。我们进一步刻画了选择历史的条件,在此条件下建模者使用序数效用描述相对偏好是合适的,并通过用它们解释所有主要类别的情境效应来说明选择历史影响的重要性。我们的提议阐明了经济合理性和心理合理性定义之间的关系,并使行为经济学家迄今判定为非理性的几种行为合理化。