School of Architecture, Civil, Environmental and Energy Engineering, Kyungpook National University, 80 Daehak-ro, Buk-gu, Daegu 702-701, Republic of Korea.
School of Architecture, Civil, Environmental and Energy Engineering, Kyungpook National University, 80 Daehak-ro, Buk-gu, Daegu 702-701, Republic of Korea.
Sci Total Environ. 2016 Jan 15;542(Pt A):1-11. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.10.115. Epub 2015 Oct 27.
Asbestos has been used since ancient times, owing to its heat-resistant, rot-proof, and insulating qualities, and its usage rapidly increased after the industrial revolution. In Korea, all slates were previously manufactured in a mixture of about 90% cement and 10% chrysotile (white asbestos). This study used a Generalized Poisson regression (GPR) model after creating databases of the mortality from asbestos-related diseases and of the amount of asbestos used in Korea as a means to predict the future mortality of asbestos-related diseases and mesothelioma in Korea. Moreover, to predict the future mortality according to the effects of slate buildings, a comparative analysis based on the result of the GPR model was conducted after creating databases of the amount of asbestos used in Korea and of the amount of asbestos used in making slates. We predicted the mortality from asbestos-related diseases by year, from 2014 to 2036, according to the amount of asbestos used. As a result, it was predicted that a total of 1942 people (maximum, 3476) will die by 2036. Moreover, based on the comparative analysis according to the influence index, it was predicted that a maximum of 555 people will die from asbestos-related diseases by 2031 as a result of the effects of asbestos-containing slate buildings, and the mortality was predicted to peak in 2021, with 53 cases. Although mesothelioma and pulmonary asbestosis were considered as asbestos-related diseases, these are not the only two diseases caused by asbestos. However the results of this study are highly important and relevant, as, for the first time in Korea, the future mortality from asbestos-related diseases was predicted. These findings are expected to contribute greatly to the Korean government's policies related to the compensation for asbestos victims.
石棉自古以来就被使用，由于其耐热、防腐和绝缘的特性，在工业革命后其使用迅速增加。在韩国，所有石板以前都是由大约 90%的水泥和 10%的温石棉（白石棉）混合制成的。本研究使用广义泊松回归（GPR）模型，在创建韩国与石棉相关疾病的死亡率和石棉使用量数据库后，预测韩国未来与石棉相关疾病和间皮瘤的死亡率。此外，为了根据石板建筑的影响来预测未来的死亡率，在创建韩国石棉使用量和石板制造中石棉使用量数据库后，进行了基于 GPR 模型结果的比较分析。我们根据石棉使用量预测了 2014 年至 2036 年期间与石棉相关疾病的死亡率。结果预测，到 2036 年，共有 1942 人（最多 3476 人）死亡。此外，根据影响指数的比较分析，预计由于含石棉石板建筑的影响，到 2031 年将有最多 555 人死于与石棉相关的疾病，死亡率预计在 2021 年达到峰值，有 53 例。虽然间皮瘤和石棉肺被认为是与石棉有关的疾病，但这些并不是由石棉引起的唯一两种疾病。然而，这项研究的结果非常重要和相关，因为这是韩国首次预测与石棉有关的疾病的未来死亡率。这些发现预计将为韩国政府制定与石棉受害者赔偿有关的政策做出重大贡献。
