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基于局部信息的行为反应抑制复杂网络中的疫情传播

Suppression of epidemic spreading in complex networks by local information based behavioral responses.

作者信息

Zhang Hai-Feng, Xie Jia-Rong, Tang Ming, Lai Ying-Cheng

机构信息

School of Mathematical Science, Anhui University, Hefei 230039, China.

Department of Modern Physics, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China.

出版信息

Chaos. 2014 Dec;24(4):043106. doi: 10.1063/1.4896333.

Abstract

The interplay between individual behaviors and epidemic dynamics in complex networks is a topic of recent interest. In particular, individuals can obtain different types of information about the disease and respond by altering their behaviors, and this can affect the spreading dynamics, possibly in a significant way. We propose a model where individuals' behavioral response is based on a generic type of local information, i.e., the number of neighbors that has been infected with the disease. Mathematically, the response can be characterized by a reduction in the transmission rate by a factor that depends on the number of infected neighbors. Utilizing the standard susceptible-infected-susceptible and susceptible-infected-recovery dynamical models for epidemic spreading, we derive a theoretical formula for the epidemic threshold and provide numerical verification. Our analysis lays on a solid quantitative footing the intuition that individual behavioral response can in general suppress epidemic spreading. Furthermore, we find that the hub nodes play the role of "double-edged sword" in that they can either suppress or promote outbreak, depending on their responses to the epidemic, providing additional support for the idea that these nodes are key to controlling epidemic spreading in complex networks.

摘要

复杂网络中个体行为与疫情动态之间的相互作用是近期备受关注的一个话题。具体而言,个体可以获取关于该疾病的不同类型信息,并通过改变自身行为做出反应,而这可能会对传播动态产生重大影响。我们提出了一个模型,其中个体的行为反应基于一种通用类型的局部信息,即已感染该疾病的邻居数量。在数学上,这种反应可以通过将传播率降低一个取决于感染邻居数量的因子来表征。利用用于疫情传播的标准易感-感染-易感和易感-感染-康复动力学模型,我们推导出了疫情阈值的理论公式并提供了数值验证。我们的分析为个体行为反应通常可以抑制疫情传播这一直觉奠定了坚实的定量基础。此外,我们发现中心节点起着“双刃剑”的作用,因为它们根据对疫情的反应,既可以抑制也可以促进疫情爆发,这为这些节点是控制复杂网络中疫情传播的关键这一观点提供了额外支持。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ba84/7112481/a51a3377cbaa/CHAOEH-000024-043106_1-g001.jpg

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