Arredondo Armando, Cuadra Silvia Magali, Duarte Maria Beatriz
National Institute of Public Health-Mexico, School of Public Health, University of Montreal, Cuernavaca, QC, H3T 1 J4, Mexico.
National Institute of Public Health, Av Universidad 655, CP 62508, Cuernavaca, Mexico.
BMC Public Health. 2015 Nov 6;15:1106. doi: 10.1186/s12889-015-2430-x.
In order to identify the challenges resulting from hypertension in a middle income country, this study has developed probabilistic models to determine the epidemiological and economic burden of hypertension in Mexico.
Considering a population base of 654,701 reported cases of adults with hypertension, we conducted a longitudinal analyses in order to identify the challenges of epidemiological changes and health care costs for hypertension in the Mexican health system. The cost-evaluation method used was based on the instrumentation technique. To estimate the epidemiological changes for 2015-2017, probabilistic models were constructed according to the Box-Jenkins technique.
Regarding changes in expected cases for 2015 vs. 2017, an increase of 12 % is expected (p < 0.001). Comparing the economic impact in 2015 versus 2017 (p < 0.001), there is a 23 % increase in financial requirements. The total amount for hypertension in 2016 (US dollars) will be $6306,685,320 Of these, $ 2990,109,035 will be as direct costs and $ 3316,576,285 as indirect costs.
If the risk factors and care models remain as they are currently in the health system, the financial consequences will have a major impact on the out-of-pocket users, following in order of importance, on social security providers and on public assistance providers.
为了确定中等收入国家高血压带来的挑战，本研究建立了概率模型，以确定墨西哥高血压的流行病学和经济负担。
考虑到654701例报告的成年高血压患者的人群基数，我们进行了纵向分析，以确定墨西哥卫生系统中高血压的流行病学变化和医疗保健成本方面的挑战。所采用的成本评估方法基于工具技术。为了估计2015 - 2017年的流行病学变化，根据Box - Jenkins技术构建了概率模型。
关于2015年与2017年预期病例的变化，预计增加12%（p < 0.001）。比较2015年与2017年的经济影响（p < 0.001），资金需求增加了23%。2016年高血压的总费用（美元）将为6306685320美元。其中，2990109035美元为直接成本，3316576285美元为间接成本。
如果卫生系统中的风险因素和护理模式保持现状，财务后果将对自费患者产生重大影响，其次按重要性顺序是对社会保障提供者和公共援助提供者产生影响。
