Gjerstad Steven D, Porter David, Smith Vernon L, Winn Abel
Economic Science Institute, Argyros School of Business and Economics, Chapman University, Orange, CA 92866.
Economic Science Institute, Argyros School of Business and Economics, Chapman University, Orange, CA 92866
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 Nov 24;112(47):14557-62. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1517038112. Epub 2015 Nov 9.
Prior studies have shown that traders quickly converge to the price-quantity equilibrium in markets for goods that are immediately consumed, but they produce speculative price bubbles in resalable asset markets. We present a stock-flow model of durable assets in which the existing stock of assets is subject to depreciation and producers may produce additional units of the asset. In our laboratory experiments inexperienced consumers who can resell their units disregard the consumption value of the assets and compete vigorously with producers, depressing prices and production. Consumers who have first participated in experiments without resale learn to heed their consumption values and, when they are given the option to resell, trade at equilibrium prices. Reproducibility is therefore the most natural and most effective treatment for suppression of bubbles in asset market experiments.
先前的研究表明,在即时消费商品市场中,交易者能够迅速趋向于价格-数量均衡,但在可转售资产市场中,他们会制造投机性价格泡沫。我们提出了一个耐用资产的存量-流量模型,其中现有资产存量会折旧,生产者可能会生产更多单位的资产。在我们的实验室实验中,能够转售其资产单位的无经验消费者忽视资产的消费价值,并与生产者激烈竞争,压低价格和产量。首先参与无转售实验的消费者学会关注其消费价值,当他们获得转售选择权时,会以均衡价格进行交易。因此,可重复性是资产市场实验中抑制泡沫最自然、最有效的方法。