Satagopan Jaya M, Sen Ananda, Zhou Qin, Lan Qing, Rothman Nathaniel, Langseth Hilde, Engel Lawrence S
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York 10017, U.S.A.
Departments of Family Medicine and Biostatistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48104, U.S.A.
Biometrics. 2016 Jun;72(2):584-95. doi: 10.1111/biom.12444. Epub 2015 Nov 17.
Matched case-control studies are popular designs used in epidemiology for assessing the effects of exposures on binary traits. Modern studies increasingly enjoy the ability to examine a large number of exposures in a comprehensive manner. However, several risk factors often tend to be related in a nontrivial way, undermining efforts to identify the risk factors using standard analytic methods due to inflated type-I errors and possible masking of effects. Epidemiologists often use data reduction techniques by grouping the prognostic factors using a thematic approach, with themes deriving from biological considerations. We propose shrinkage-type estimators based on Bayesian penalization methods to estimate the effects of the risk factors using these themes. The properties of the estimators are examined using extensive simulations. The methodology is illustrated using data from a matched case-control study of polychlorinated biphenyls in relation to the etiology of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma.
匹配病例对照研究是流行病学中用于评估暴露因素对二元性状影响的常用设计。现代研究越来越能够以全面的方式检查大量暴露因素。然而,几个风险因素往往以一种复杂的方式相互关联,由于I型错误的增加以及可能的效应掩盖,使用标准分析方法识别风险因素的努力受到了影响。流行病学家经常使用数据简化技术,通过采用主题方法对预后因素进行分组,这些主题源于生物学考量。我们提出基于贝叶斯惩罚方法的收缩型估计量,以利用这些主题来估计风险因素的效应。通过广泛的模拟研究了估计量的性质。使用一项关于多氯联苯与非霍奇金淋巴瘤病因关系的匹配病例对照研究的数据对该方法进行了说明。