Salles Océane C, Maynard Jeffrey A, Joannides Marc, Barbu Corentin M, Saenz-Agudelo Pablo, Almany Glenn R, Berumen Michael L, Thorrold Simon R, Jones Geoffrey P, Planes Serge
Laboratoire d'Excellence 'CORAIL', USR 3278 CNRS-EPHE-UPVD CRIOBE, Perpignan, France
Laboratoire d'Excellence 'CORAIL', USR 3278 CNRS-EPHE-UPVD CRIOBE, Perpignan, France SymbioSeas and Marine Applied Research Center, Wilmington, NC 28411, USA.
Proc Biol Sci. 2015 Nov 22;282(1819). doi: 10.1098/rspb.2015.1311.
Determining the conditions under which populations may persist requires accurate estimates of demographic parameters, including immigration, local reproductive success, and mortality rates. In marine populations, empirical estimates of these parameters are rare, due at least in part to the pelagic dispersal stage common to most marine organisms. Here, we evaluate population persistence and turnover for a population of orange clownfish, Amphiprion percula, at Kimbe Island in Papua New Guinea. All fish in the population were sampled and genotyped on five occasions at 2-year intervals spanning eight years. The genetic data enabled estimates of reproductive success retained in the same population (reproductive success to self-recruitment), reproductive success exported to other subpopulations (reproductive success to local connectivity), and immigration and mortality rates of sub-adults and adults. Approximately 50% of the recruits were assigned to parents from the Kimbe Island population and this was stable through the sampling period. Stability in the proportion of local and immigrant settlers is likely due to: low annual mortality rates and stable egg production rates, and the short larval stages and sensory capacities of reef fish larvae. Biannual mortality rates ranged from 0.09 to 0.55 and varied significantly spatially. We used these data to parametrize a model that estimated the probability of the Kimbe Island population persisting in the absence of immigration. The Kimbe Island population was found to persist without significant immigration. Model results suggest the island population persists because the largest of the subpopulations are maintained due to having low mortality and high self-recruitment rates. Our results enable managers to appropriately target and scale actions to maximize persistence likelihood as disturbance frequencies increase.
确定种群能够持续存在的条件需要准确估计人口统计学参数，包括迁入、本地繁殖成功率和死亡率。在海洋种群中，这些参数的实证估计很少，至少部分原因是大多数海洋生物共有的浮游扩散阶段。在此，我们评估了巴布亚新几内亚金贝岛橙色小丑鱼（眼斑双锯鱼）种群的种群持续性和更替情况。在跨越八年的时间里，每隔两年对该种群中的所有鱼类进行五次采样并进行基因分型。遗传数据使得能够估计在同一种群中保留的繁殖成功率（自补充繁殖成功率）、输出到其他亚种群的繁殖成功率（本地连通性繁殖成功率）以及亚成体和成体的迁入率和死亡率。大约50%的新补充个体被确定来自金贝岛种群的亲本，并且在整个采样期间这一比例保持稳定。本地定居者和外来定居者比例的稳定性可能归因于：低年死亡率和稳定的产卵率，以及珊瑚礁鱼类幼体较短的幼体阶段和感官能力。两年一次的死亡率在0.09至0.55之间，且在空间上有显著差异。我们利用这些数据为一个模型设定参数，该模型估计了在没有迁入的情况下金贝岛种群持续存在的概率。研究发现金贝岛种群在没有显著迁入的情况下能够持续存在。模型结果表明该岛屿种群能够持续存在是因为最大的亚种群由于死亡率低和自补充率高而得以维持。我们的结果使管理者能够在干扰频率增加时，适当地确定行动目标并调整行动规模，以最大化种群持续存在的可能性。
