Department of Marine Sciences , University of New England , Biddeford, ME, USA.
R Soc Open Sci. 2015 Jul 29;2(7):140429. doi: 10.1098/rsos.140429. eCollection 2015 Jul.
Faecal pollution in stormwater, wastewater and direct run-off can carry zoonotic pathogens to streams, rivers and the ocean, reduce water quality, and affect both recreational and commercial fishing areas of the coastal ocean. Typically, the closure of beaches and commercial fishing areas is governed by the testing for the presence of faecal bacteria, which requires an 18-24 h period for sample incubation. As water quality can change during this testing period, the need for accurate and timely predictions of coastal water quality has become acute. In this study, we: (i) examine the relationship between water quality, precipitation and river discharge at several locations within the Gulf of Maine, and (ii) use multiple linear regression models based on readily obtainable hydrometeorological measurements to predict water quality events at five coastal locations. Analysis of a 12 year dataset revealed that high river discharge and/or precipitation events can lead to reduced water quality; however, the use of only these two parameters to predict water quality can result in a number of errors. Analysis of a higher frequency, 2 year study using multiple linear regression models revealed that precipitation, salinity, river discharge, winds, seasonality and coastal circulation correlate with variations in water quality. Although there has been extensive development of regression models for freshwater, this is one of the first attempts to create a mechanistic model to predict water quality in coastal marine waters. Model performance is similar to that of efforts in other regions, which have incorporated models into water resource managers' decisions, indicating that the use of a mechanistic model in coastal Maine is feasible.
雨水、污水和直接径流中的粪便污染可能将人畜共患病原体携带到溪流、河流和海洋中，降低水质，并影响沿海水域的娱乐和商业捕鱼区。通常，海滩和商业捕鱼区的关闭由粪便细菌的存在测试来管理，这需要 18-24 小时的样本孵育期。由于在此测试期间水质可能会发生变化，因此对沿海水质进行准确和及时预测的需求变得尤为迫切。在这项研究中，我们：(i) 检查缅因湾几个地点的水质、降水和河流流量之间的关系；(ii) 使用基于易于获得的水文气象测量的多元线性回归模型来预测五个沿海地点的水质事件。对 12 年数据集的分析表明，高河流流量和/或降水事件会导致水质下降；然而，仅使用这两个参数来预测水质可能会导致许多错误。使用多元线性回归模型对更频繁的 2 年研究进行分析表明，降水、盐度、河流流量、风和季节性以及沿海环流与水质变化相关。尽管已经广泛开发了淡水回归模型，但这是首次尝试创建一个机制模型来预测沿海水域的水质。模型性能与其他地区的努力相似，这些地区已经将模型纳入水资源管理者的决策中，这表明在缅因州沿海使用机制模型是可行的。
