Ko Y C
Gaoxiong Yi Xue Ke Xue Za Zhi. 1989 Jan;5(1):1-11.
Dengue fever, a tropical communicable disease, is caused by an infectious viral disease. It is also known as break bone fever. There have been a number of epidemics over the last century in Taiwan. Following an islandwide epidemic in 1942, dengue fever had not been presented on the island for about forty years. In 1981, an outbreak of dengue occurred in Liuchiu Hsiang, a small off-shore island of Pingtung county. The estimated attack rate was 80%. DEN-2 was isolated during that outbreak. Another occurrence occurred in the fall of 1987 in the southern part of Taiwan. The accumulated reported cases reached 1,387 at the end of that year. A majority of cases were reported in the Sanmin district of Kaohsiung city. The reported cumulative incidence was 0.2% in Sanmin. However, according to one survey, the attack rate in that area was 2.9%. DEN-1 was most commonly isolated but DEN-2 was also found in five cases. The latest outbreak took place in 1988. The estimation of reported cases exceeded 10,000 at the end of November, 1988. Two cases of dengue haemorrhagic fever were confirmed. More than fifty percent of the report case came from Kaohsiung city. The reported cumulative incidence rate was 0.5% in that area. Another survey reported that the adult attack rate exceeded 5% in the same area. It is estimated that the number of patients with mild symptoms and those without any symptoms would be a few times more than the number of those actually reported. However, a large space of herd immunity for susceptible hosts has remained. DEN-1 was isolated from all of the reported cases except two in which DEN-4 were isolated. Among the various variables which would effect the proliferation of disease, such as Aedes aegypti density, precipitation, and temperature, only a prior month of precipitation can explain the outbreak of dengue by stepwise multiple regression. Besides this, there was also a higher relative risk due to a higher population density with a trend correlation. Because of the ineffectiveness of the present control program, it is predicted that there may be yet another outbreak in the following year effecting those susceptible when the rainfall season comes.
登革热是一种热带传染病，由传染性病毒疾病引起。它也被称为“断骨热”。上个世纪台湾发生过多次疫情。1942年全岛疫情过后，登革热在台湾岛上消失了约四十年。1981年，屏东县的一个小离岛琉球乡爆发了登革热疫情。估计发病率为80%。那次疫情期间分离出了DEN-2病毒。1987年秋季台湾南部又发生了一次疫情。到当年年底累计报告病例达1387例。大多数病例报告于高雄市三民区。三民区报告的累计发病率为0.2%。然而，根据一项调查，该地区的发病率为2.9%。最常分离出的是DEN-1病毒，但也有5例分离出了DEN-2病毒。最近一次疫情发生在1988年。到1988年11月底，报告病例估计超过10000例。确诊了2例登革出血热病例。报告病例的一半以上来自高雄市。该地区报告的累计发病率为0.5%。另一项调查显示，同一地区成年人的发病率超过5%。据估计，症状轻微和无症状的患者数量将是实际报告数量的几倍。然而，易感宿主仍有很大的群体免疫空间。除了2例分离出DEN-4病毒的病例外，所有报告病例均分离出了DEN-1病毒。在影响疾病传播的各种变量中，如埃及伊蚊密度、降水量和温度，只有前一个月的降水量可以通过逐步多元回归解释登革热的爆发。除此之外，由于人口密度较高且存在趋势相关性，相对风险也较高。由于目前的防控措施无效，预计来年雨季到来时，易感人群可能会再次爆发疫情。
