Bruggeman Douglas J
Ecological Services and Markets, Inc., Marshall, NC 28753, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2015 Dec 16;10(12):e0144047. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0144047. eCollection 2015.
Markets for biodiversity have generated much controversy because of the often unstated and untested assumptions included in transactions rules. Simple trading rules are favored to reduce transaction costs, but others have argued that this leads to markets that favor development and erode biodiversity. Here, I describe how embracing complexity and uncertainty within a tradable credit system for the Red-cockaded Woodpecker (Picoides borealis) creates opportunities to achieve financial and conservation goals simultaneously. Reversing the effects of habitat fragmentation is one of the main reasons for developing markets. I include uncertainty in habitat fragmentation effects by evaluating market transactions using five alternative dispersal models that were able to approximate observed patterns of occupancy and movement. Further, because dispersal habitat is often not included in market transactions, I contrast how changes in breeding versus dispersal habitat affect credit values. I use an individually-based, spatially-explicit population model for the Red-cockaded Woodpecker (Picoides borealis) to predict spatial- and temporal- influences of landscape change on species occurrence and genetic diversity. Results indicated that the probability of no net loss of abundance and genetic diversity responded differently to the transient dynamics in breeding and dispersal habitat. Trades that do not violate the abundance cap may simultaneously violate the cap for the erosion of genetic diversity. To highlight how economic incentives may help reduce uncertainty, I demonstrate tradeoffs between the value of tradable credits and the value of information needed to predict the influence of habitat trades on population viability. For the trade with the greatest uncertainty regarding the change in habitat fragmentation, I estimate that the value of using 13-years of data to reduce uncertainty in dispersal behaviors is $6.2 million. Future guidance for biodiversity markets should at least encourage the use of spatially- and temporally-explicit techniques that include population genetic estimates and the influence of uncertainty.
生物多样性市场引发了诸多争议，因为交易规则中往往包含未阐明且未经检验的假设。人们倾向于采用简单的交易规则以降低交易成本，但也有人认为这会导致市场偏向发展并侵蚀生物多样性。在此，我描述了在红顶啄木鸟（Picoides borealis）的可交易信用体系中接纳复杂性和不确定性如何创造机会，同时实现金融和保护目标。扭转栖息地破碎化的影响是发展市场的主要原因之一。我通过使用五种替代扩散模型评估市场交易来纳入栖息地破碎化影响的不确定性，这些模型能够近似观察到的占据和移动模式。此外，由于扩散栖息地通常不包含在市场交易中，我对比了繁殖栖息地与扩散栖息地的变化如何影响信用价值。我使用基于个体的、空间明确的红顶啄木鸟（Picoides borealis）种群模型来预测景观变化对物种出现和遗传多样性的空间和时间影响。结果表明，丰度和遗传多样性无净损失的概率对繁殖和扩散栖息地的瞬态动态反应不同。不违反丰度上限的交易可能同时违反遗传多样性侵蚀的上限。为了突出经济激励如何有助于降低不确定性，我展示了可交易信用的价值与预测栖息地交易对种群生存能力影响所需信息的价值之间的权衡。对于栖息地破碎化变化不确定性最大的交易，我估计使用13年数据来降低扩散行为不确定性的价值为620万美元。生物多样性市场未来的指导至少应鼓励使用包括种群遗传估计和不确定性影响的空间和时间明确技术。
