Wu Xiaotian, Röst Gergely, Zou Xingfu
Department of Mathematics, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai, 201306, China.
Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, Szeged, H6720, Hungary.
Bull Math Biol. 2016 Jan;78(1):138-68. doi: 10.1007/s11538-015-0133-1. Epub 2015 Dec 18.
Many observational studies suggest that seasonal migratory birds play an important role in spreading Ixodes scapularis, a vector of Lyme disease, along their migratory flyways, and they are believed to be responsible for geographic range expansion of I. scapularis in Canada. However, the interplay between the dynamics of I. scapularis on land and migratory birds in the air is not well understood. In this study, we develop a periodic delay meta-population model which takes into consideration the local landscape for tick reproduction within patches and the times needed for ticks to be transported by birds between patches. Assuming that the tick population is endemic in the source region, we find that bird migration may boost an already established tick population at the subsequent region and thus increase the risk to humans, or bird migration may help ticks to establish in a region where the local landscape is not appropriate for ticks to survive in the absence of bird migration, imposing risks to public health. This theoretical study reveals that bird migration plays an important role in the geographic range expansion of I. scapularis, and therefore our findings may suggest some strategies for Lyme disease prevention and control.
许多观察性研究表明，季节性候鸟在沿其迁徙路线传播莱姆病的传播媒介肩突硬蜱方面发挥着重要作用，并且它们被认为是导致加拿大肩突硬蜱地理分布范围扩大的原因。然而，陆地上肩突硬蜱的动态与空中候鸟之间的相互作用尚未得到很好的理解。在本研究中，我们开发了一个周期性延迟集合种群模型，该模型考虑了斑块内蜱虫繁殖的局部景观以及蜱虫被鸟类在斑块之间运输所需的时间。假设蜱虫种群在源区域是地方性的，我们发现鸟类迁徙可能会增加后续区域已经存在的蜱虫种群数量，从而增加对人类的风险，或者鸟类迁徙可能会帮助蜱虫在当地景观不适合蜱虫在没有鸟类迁徙的情况下生存的区域定殖，给公共卫生带来风险。这项理论研究表明，鸟类迁徙在肩突硬蜱的地理分布范围扩大中起着重要作用，因此我们的研究结果可能为莱姆病的预防和控制提供一些策略。
