Gray Eoin P, Teare M Dawn, Stevens John, Archer Rachel
Department of School of Health and Related Research, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, United Kingdom.
Department of School of Health and Related Research, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, United Kingdom.
Clin Lung Cancer. 2016 Mar;17(2):95-106. doi: 10.1016/j.cllc.2015.11.007. Epub 2015 Dec 1.
Many lung cancer risk prediction models have been published but there has been no systematic review or comprehensive assessment of these models to assess how they could be used in screening. We performed a systematic review of lung cancer prediction models and identified 31 articles that related to 25 distinct models, of which 11 considered epidemiological factors only and did not require a clinical input. Another 11 articles focused on models that required a clinical assessment such as a blood test or scan, and 8 articles considered the 2-stage clonal expansion model. More of the epidemiological models had been externally validated than the more recent clinical assessment models. There was varying discrimination, the ability of a model to distinguish between cases and controls, with an area under the curve between 0.57 and 0.879 and calibration, the model's ability to assign an accurate probability to an individual. In our review we found that further validation studies need to be considered; especially for the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial 2012 Model Version (PLCOM2012) and Hoggart models, which recorded the best overall performance. Future studies will need to focus on prediction rules, such as optimal risk thresholds, for models for selective screening trials. Only 3 validation studies considered prediction rules when validating the models and overall the models were validated using varied tests in distinct populations, which made direct comparisons difficult. To improve this, multiple models need to be tested on the same data set with considerations for sensitivity, specificity, model accuracy, and positive predictive values at the optimal risk thresholds.
许多肺癌风险预测模型已经发表,但尚未对这些模型进行系统评价或全面评估,以评估它们在筛查中的应用方式。我们对肺癌预测模型进行了系统评价,确定了31篇与25种不同模型相关的文章,其中11篇仅考虑流行病学因素,不需要临床输入。另外11篇文章关注需要临床评估(如血液检测或扫描)的模型,8篇文章考虑了两阶段克隆扩增模型。与最近的临床评估模型相比,更多的流行病学模型已经得到外部验证。模型在区分病例和对照方面的辨别能力各不相同,曲线下面积在0.57至0.879之间,并且在模型为个体准确赋值概率的校准方面也存在差异。在我们的综述中,我们发现需要考虑进一步的验证研究;特别是对于2012年前列腺、肺癌、结直肠癌和卵巢癌(PLCO)筛查试验模型版本(PLCOM2012)和霍格特模型,它们记录了最佳的总体性能。未来的研究需要关注预测规则,例如选择性筛查试验模型的最佳风险阈值。在验证模型时,只有3项验证研究考虑了预测规则,总体而言,这些模型在不同人群中使用了不同的测试进行验证,这使得直接比较变得困难。为了改善这种情况,需要在同一数据集上对多个模型进行测试,并考虑最佳风险阈值下的敏感性、特异性、模型准确性和阳性预测值。