Yao Hong, Zhang Tongzhu, Liu Bo, Lu Feng, Fang Shurong, You Zhen
School of Geography, Nantong University, Nantong, 226019, China.
School of Liberal Arts, Nantong University, Nantong, 226019, China.
Environ Manage. 2016 Apr;57(4):868-78. doi: 10.1007/s00267-015-0654-2. Epub 2016 Jan 6.
Understanding historical accidents is important for accident prevention and risk mitigation; however, there are no public databases of pollution accidents in China, and no detailed information regarding such incidents is readily available. Thus, 653 representative cases of surface water pollution accidents in China were identified and described as a function of time, location, materials involved, origin, and causes. The severity and other features of the accidents, frequency and quantities of chemicals involved, frequency and number of people poisoned, frequency and number of people affected, frequency and time for which pollution lasted, and frequency and length of pollution zone were effectively used to value and estimate the accumulated probabilities. The probabilities of occurrences of various types based on origin and causes were also summarized based on these observations. The following conclusions can be drawn from these analyses: (1) There was a high proportion of accidents involving multi-district boundary regions and drinking water crises, indicating that more attention should be paid to environmental risk prevention and the mitigation of such incidents. (2) A high proportion of accidents originated from small-sized chemical plants, indicating that these types of enterprises should be considered during policy making. (3) The most common cause (49.8% of the total) was intentional acts (illegal discharge); accordingly, efforts to increase environmental consciousness in China should be enhanced.
了解历史事故对于事故预防和风险缓解至关重要；然而，中国没有污染事故的公共数据库，也没有此类事故的详细信息。因此，确定并描述了中国653起具有代表性的地表水环境污染事故，这些事故按照时间、地点、涉及物质、来源和原因进行了分类。利用事故的严重程度和其他特征、涉及化学品的频率和数量、中毒人数的频率和数量、受影响人数的频率和数量、污染持续的频率和时间以及污染区域的频率和长度，有效地对累积概率进行了评估和估计。还根据这些观察结果总结了基于来源和原因的各类事故发生概率。从这些分析中可以得出以下结论：（1）涉及多行政区边界地区和饮用水危机的事故比例很高，这表明应更加关注环境风险预防和此类事故的缓解。（2）很大一部分事故源自小型化工厂，这表明在制定政策时应考虑这类企业。（3）最常见的原因（占总数的49.8%）是故意行为（非法排放）；因此，应加强提高中国环境意识的努力。
