Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University , Durham, North Carolina 27708, United States.
Environ Sci Technol. 2016 Feb 16;50(4):2082-91. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.5b04857. Epub 2016 Jan 25.
This paper presents a first-order analysis of the feasibility and technical, environmental, and economic effects of large levels of solar photovoltaic (PV) penetration within the services areas of the Duke Energy Carolinas (DEC) and Duke Energy Progress (DEP). A PV production model based on household density and a gridded hourly global horizontal irradiance data set simulates hourly PV power output from roof-top installations, while a unit commitment and real-time economic dispatch (UC-ED) model simulates hourly system operations. We find that the large generating capacity of base-load nuclear power plants (NPPs) without ramping capability in the region limits PV integration levels to 5.3% (6510 MW) of 2015 generation. Enabling ramping capability for NPPs would raise the limit of PV penetration to near 9% of electricity generated. If the planned retirement of coal-fired power plants together with new installations and upgrades of natural gas and nuclear plants materialize in 2025, and if NPPs operate flexibly, then the share of coal-fired electricity will be reduced from 37% to 22%. A 9% penetration of electricity from PV would further reduce the share of coal-fired electricity by 4-6% resulting in a system-wide CO2 emissions rate of 0.33 to 0.40 tons/MWh and associated abatement costs of 225-415 (2015$ per ton).
本文对在杜克能源卡罗来纳州公司（DEC）和杜克能源进步公司（DEP）服务区大规模应用太阳能光伏（PV）的可行性，以及技术、环境和经济影响进行了一阶分析。基于家庭密度的光伏产量模型和网格化的每小时水平太阳辐射数据集模拟了屋顶安装的每小时光伏电量输出，而单元承诺和实时经济调度（UC-ED）模型则模拟了每小时系统运行。我们发现，该地区无调峰能力的基荷核电厂具有大容量发电能力，这限制了光伏集成水平，使其在 2015 年发电量中占比仅为 5.3%（6510MW）。如果核电厂具备调峰能力，那么光伏的渗透率上限将接近 9%。如果 2025 年规划中的燃煤电厂退役，同时新增和升级天然气和核电厂得以实现，并且核电厂能够灵活运行，那么燃煤发电量的份额将从 37%降至 22%。如果 9%的电力来自光伏，那么燃煤发电量将再减少 4-6%，从而使系统范围内的二氧化碳排放量达到 0.33 至 0.40 吨/MWh，减排成本为 225-415 美元（每吨 2015 年美元）。
