Evaluation of the Control Strategy for the 2010 Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreak in Japan Using Disease Simulation.

In 2010, Japan experienced a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic where 292 premises were infected over a period of 75 days. The epidemic was controlled by stamping-out and vaccination, applied 5 weeks after the first confirmation of disease within a 10 km radius of identified infected places. This study aimed at identifying the role of emergency vaccination to epidemic control while adjusting for the dynamic pattern of local spread, and assessing alternative vaccination strategies, using a disease simulation model. Our results indicate that the overall hazard of local spread remained high throughout the silent spread phase and the first two weeks post-detection, with significant reduction occurring from week 3 onwards. The estimated effectiveness of emergency vaccination quantified as reduction in the hazard of infection was at most 81% and 44% for cattle and pig farms, respectively. The vaccination strategy reduced the simulated median number of IPs by 22%, epidemic duration by 64% and culling duration by 52%, but increased the total number of infected or vaccinated premises subject to culling by 144% compared with no vaccination. The simulation indicated that vaccination starting 2 weeks earlier (3 weeks post-first detection) with a smaller vaccination radius (3 km) was more effective for eradication of the epidemic compared with the actually implemented strategy.