Zhou Jiansong, Witt Katrina, Cao Xia, Chen Chen, Wang Xiaoping
Department of Psychiatry & Mental Health Institute of the Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan, China.
National Clinical Research Center on Mental Disorders & National Technology Institute on Mental Disorders, Hunan Key Laboratory of Psychiatry and Mental Health, Changsha, Hunan, China.
PLoS One. 2017 Jan 11;12(1):e0169251. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0169251. eCollection 2017.
Juvenile violent offending is a serious worldwide public health issue.
The study examined whether the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) can be used to predict violent reoffending in Chinese male juvenile offenders, and to determine which risk/protective domains (items) are associated with violent recidivism.
A total of 246 male juvenile offenders were recruited. SAVRY domains were scored by trained raters based on file review and interviews with participants and their legal guardians. Information on further arrests, charges, or convictions for violent offences were collected from police records over a five year follow-up.
Over the course of the five year follow-up periods, 63 (25.6%) juvenile offenders were re-arrested for a further violent reoffence. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analyses showed Areas Under the Curve (AUCs) ranging from 0.60 to 0.68 for the SAVRY total, risk and protective score domains. Univariate logistic regression analysis showed that 7 of the 30 SAVRY items were significantly associated with reoffending; explaining 36.2% of the variance. Backward stepwise multiple logistic regression analysis showed the independently predictive items were items 2 ('history of non-violent offending'), 17 ('negative attitudes'), 18 ('risk-taking/impulsivity'), and 20 ('anger management problems'). Together these four items explained 25.0% of the variance in reoffending.
The results suggested that the SAVRY can be meaningfully used to inform the development and evaluation of effective violence risk assessment and management approaches for male juvenile offenders detained in a Youth Detention Center in Hunan province, China.
青少年暴力犯罪是一个严重的全球性公共卫生问题。
本研究探讨青少年暴力风险结构化评估（SAVRY）是否可用于预测中国男性青少年罪犯的暴力再犯情况，并确定哪些风险/保护领域（项目）与暴力累犯相关。
共招募了246名男性青少年罪犯。由经过培训的评估人员根据档案审查以及与参与者及其法定监护人的访谈对SAVRY领域进行评分。在为期五年的随访中，从警方记录中收集有关进一步逮捕、指控或暴力犯罪定罪的信息。
在五年随访期间，63名（25.6%）青少年罪犯因再次暴力犯罪而被重新逮捕。受试者工作特征（ROC）分析显示，SAVRY总分、风险和保护得分领域的曲线下面积（AUC）在0.60至0.68之间。单因素逻辑回归分析显示，30个SAVRY项目中有7个与再犯显著相关；解释了36.2%的方差。向后逐步多元逻辑回归分析显示，独立预测项目为项目2（“非暴力犯罪史”）、项目17（“消极态度”）、项目18（“冒险/冲动”）和项目20（“愤怒管理问题”）。这四个项目共同解释了再犯方差的25.0%。
结果表明，SAVRY可有效地用于为中国湖南省青少年拘留中心被拘留的男性青少年罪犯制定和评估有效的暴力风险评估与管理方法提供参考。
