Kirkbride James B
University College London.
BJPsych Bull. 2015 Oct;39(5):242-7. doi: 10.1192/pb.bp.114.047746.
One in three people will experience a mental health problem in their lifetime, but the causes and consequences of psychiatric morbidity are socially patterned. Epidemiological studies can provide aetiological clues about the causes of disorder, and when they can provide robust estimates about risk in different strata of the population these can also be used translationally, to provide commissioners and service planners with detailed information about local service need. This approach is illustrated using a newly developed population-level prediction tool for first-episode psychosis, PsyMaptic. Such public mental health prediction tools could be used to improve allocation of finite resources, by integrating evidence-based healthcare, public health and epidemiology together.
三分之一的人在其一生中会经历心理健康问题,但精神疾病的病因和后果存在社会模式。流行病学研究可以提供有关疾病病因的病因线索,当它们能够对不同人群阶层的风险提供可靠估计时,这些估计也可用于转化,为专员和服务规划者提供有关当地服务需求的详细信息。使用一种新开发的针对首发精神病的人群水平预测工具PsyMaptic对这一方法进行了说明。通过将循证医疗、公共卫生和流行病学整合在一起,此类公共心理健康预测工具可用于改善有限资源的分配。