Thibodeau Lise, Lachaud James
a Division of Clinical Epidemiology, Department of Medicine , McGill University, and Research Institute of the McGill University Health Centre (RI-MUHC) , Montreal , Quebec , Canada.
b Dalla Lana School of Public Health , University of Toronto , Toronto , Ontario , Canada.
Death Stud. 2016;40(5):305-15. doi: 10.1080/07481187.2015.1133727. Epub 2016 Jan 14.
Three theories have been proposed to explain the relationship between suicide and economic fluctuations, including the Durkheim (nonlinear), Ginsberg (procyclical), and Henry and Short (countercyclical) theories. This study tested the effect of economic fluctuations, measured by unemployment rate, on suicide rates in Canada from 1926 to 2008. Autoregressive integrated moving average time-series models were used. The results showed a significant relationship between suicide and economic fluctuation; this association was positive during the contraction period (1926-1950) and negative in the period of economic expansion (1951-1973). Males and females showed differential effects in the period of moderate unemployment (1974-2008). In addition, the suicide rate of mid-adults (45-64) was most impacted by economic fluctuations. Our study tends to support Durkheim's theory and suggests the need for public health responses in times of economic contraction and expansion.
人们提出了三种理论来解释自杀与经济波动之间的关系，包括涂尔干（非线性）、金斯伯格（顺周期）以及亨利和肖特（反周期）理论。本研究检验了以失业率衡量的经济波动对1926年至2008年加拿大自杀率的影响。研究使用了自回归积分滑动平均时间序列模型。结果显示，自杀与经济波动之间存在显著关系；这种关联在经济收缩期（1926 - 1950年）为正，而在经济扩张期（1951 - 1973年）为负。在中度失业时期（1974 - 2008年），男性和女性表现出不同的影响。此外，中年成年人（45 - 64岁）的自杀率受经济波动的影响最大。我们的研究倾向于支持涂尔干的理论，并表明在经济收缩和扩张时期都需要公共卫生应对措施。
