Evaluation of Temporal Changes in Cardiovascular Biomarker Concentrations Improves Risk Prediction in an Elderly Population from the Community.

BACKGROUND

There is increasing interest in measurements of cardiovascular (CV) biomarker concentrations for risk prediction in the general population. We investigated the prognostic utility of a panel of novel CV biomarkers including biomarker changes over time.

METHODS

We measured concentrations of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), midregional proadrenomedullin, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I, growth-differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), soluble ST2 (sST2), and galectin-3 at baseline and 5 years later in 1016 elderly individuals participating in the Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors (PIVUS) study. Assessed outcomes included all-cause mortality and fatal and nonfatal CV events (in participants without CV disease at baseline) during 10 years of follow-up.

RESULTS

GDF-15 exhibited the strongest association with all-cause mortality (n = 158) with a hazard ratio (HR) per 1-SD increase in standardized ln GDF-15 of 1.68 (95% CI, 1.44-1.96). NT-proBNP was the only biomarker to predict CV events (n = 163; HR 1.54 [95% CI, 1.30-1.84]). GDF-15 and NT-proBNP also improved metrics of discrimination and reclassification of the respective outcomes. Changes in GDF-15 concentrations between 70 and 75 years predicted all-cause mortality whereas changes in NT-proBNP predicted both outcomes. The other biomarkers and their temporal changes provided only moderate prognostic value apart from sST2 which had a neutral relationship with adverse events.

CONCLUSIONS

Evaluation of temporal changes in GDF-15 and NT-proBNP concentrations improves risk prediction in an elderly population. These findings are of considerable interest given the emphasis on biomarkers as tools to identify and monitor at-risk individuals with preclinical and potentially modifiable stages of CV disease.