Bannayan Mohammad, Paymard Parisa, Ashraf Batool
Department of Agronomy, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.
Department of Agriculture, Islamic Azad University - Mashhad Branch, P.O. Box 91735-413, Mashhad, Iran.
J Sci Food Agric. 2016 Oct;96(13):4465-74. doi: 10.1002/jsfa.7659. Epub 2016 Apr 13.
Climate change can affect the productivity and geographic distribution of crops. Therefore, evaluation of adaptive management options is crucial in dealing with negative impacts of climate change. The objectives of this study were to simulate the impacts of climate change on maize production in the north-east of Iran. Moreover, vulnerability index which indicated that how much of the crop yield loss is related to the drought was computed for each location to identify where adaptation and mitigation strategies are effective. Different sowing dates were also applied as an adaptation approach to decrease the negative impacts of climate change in study area.
The results showed that the maize yield would decline during the 21st century from -2.6% to -82% at all study locations in comparison with the baseline. The result of vulnerability index also indicated that using the adaptation strategies could be effective in all of the study areas. Using different sowing dates as an adaptation approach showed that delaying the sowing date will be advantageous in order to obtain higher yield in all study locations in future.
This study provided insight regarding the climate change impacts on maize production and the efficacy of adaptation strategies. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.
气候变化会影响作物的生产力和地理分布。因此，评估适应性管理方案对于应对气候变化的负面影响至关重要。本研究的目的是模拟气候变化对伊朗东北部玉米生产的影响。此外，还计算了每个地点的脆弱性指数，该指数表明作物产量损失与干旱的相关程度，以确定哪些地方的适应和缓解策略有效。还采用了不同的播种日期作为一种适应方法，以减少研究区域内气候变化的负面影响。
结果表明，与基线相比，21世纪所有研究地点的玉米产量将下降2.6%至82%。脆弱性指数的结果还表明，采用适应策略在所有研究区域都可能有效。将不同的播种日期作为一种适应方法表明，为了在未来所有研究地点获得更高的产量，推迟播种日期将是有利的。
本研究提供了关于气候变化对玉米生产的影响以及适应策略有效性的见解。©2016化学工业协会。
