Ministry of Agriculture Key Laboratory of Plant Nutrition and Fertilizer, Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS), Beijing, 100081, China.
Harrow Research and Development Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 2585 County Road, Harrow, ON, N0R 1G0, Canada.
Sci Rep. 2021 Jan 12;11(1):810. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-79988-3.
Maize (Zea mays L.) production in Northeast China is vulnerable to climate change. Thus, exploring future adaptation measures for maize is crucial to developing sustainable agriculture to ensure food security. The current study was undertaken to evaluate the impacts of climate change on maize yield and partial factor productivity of nitrogen (PFPN) and explore potential adaptation strategies in Northeast China. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model was calibrated and validated using the measurements from nine maize experiments. DSSAT performed well in simulating maize yield, biomass and N uptake for both calibration and validation periods (normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) < 10%, -5% < normalized average relative error (nARE) < 5% and index of agreement (d) > 0.8). Compared to the baseline (1980-2010), the average maize yields and PFPN would decrease by 7.6-32.1% and 3.6-14.0 kg N kg respectively under future climate scenarios (2041-2070 and 2071-2100) without adaptation. Optimizing N application rate and timing, establishing rotation system with legumes, adjusting planting dates and breeding long-season cultivars could be effective adaptation strategies to climate change. This study demonstrated that optimizing agronomic crop management practices would assist to make policy development on mitigating the negative impacts of future climate change on maize production.
中国东北地区的玉米（Zea mays L.）生产易受气候变化的影响。因此，探索未来玉米适应气候变化的措施对于发展可持续农业、确保粮食安全至关重要。本研究旨在评估气候变化对玉米产量和氮部分生产力（PFPN）的影响，并探索中国东北地区的潜在适应策略。利用九个玉米试验的测量值对决策支持系统农业技术转让（DSSAT）模型进行了校准和验证。DSSAT 在模拟玉米产量、生物量和氮吸收方面表现良好，校准和验证期间的归一化均方根误差（nRMSE）<10%，归一化平均相对误差（nARE）<-5%且<5%，一致性指数（d）>0.8。与基准期（1980-2010 年）相比，未来气候情景（2041-2070 年和 2071-2100 年）下，玉米产量和氮部分生产力平均分别减少 7.6-32.1%和 3.6-14.0kg N kg-1，而无适应措施。优化氮肥施用量和时间、建立豆科作物轮作制度、调整种植日期和培育长季品种是适应气候变化的有效策略。本研究表明，优化农业作物管理实践将有助于制定减轻未来气候变化对玉米生产负面影响的政策。
