Abola Victor, Sy Deborah, Denniston Ryan, So Anthony
University of Asia and the Pacific.
Georgetown University Law Center.
Philipp Rev Econ. 2014 Dec;51(2):83-96.
Cigarette smuggling reduces the price of cigarettes, thwarts youth access restrictions, reduces government revenue, and undercuts the ability of taxes to reduce consumption. The tobacco industry often opposes increases to tobacco taxes on the claim that greater taxes induce more smuggling. To date, little is known about the magnitude of smuggling in the Philippines. his information is necessary to effectively address illicit trade and to measure the impacts of tax changes and the introduction of secure tax markings on illicit trade. This study employs two gap discrepancy methods to estimate the magnitude of illicit trade in cigarettes for the Philippines between 1994 and 2009. First, domestic consumption is compared with tax-paid sales to measure the consumption of illicit cigarettes. Second, imports recorded by the Philippines are compared with exports to the Philippines by trade partners to measure smuggling. Domestic consumption fell short of tax-paid sales for all survey years. The magnitude of these differences and a comparison with a prevalence survey for 2009 suggest a high level of survey under-reporting of smoking. In the late 1990s and the mid 2000s, the Philippines experienced two sharp declines in trade discrepancies, from a high of $750 million in 1995 to a low of $133.7 million in 2008. Discrepancies composed more than one-third of the domestic market in 1995, but only 10 percent in 2009. Hong Kong, Singapore, and China together account for more than 80 percent of the cumulative discrepancies over the period and 74 percent of the discrepancy in 2009. The presence of large discrepancies supports the need to implement an effective tax marking and tobacco track and trace system to reduce illicit trade and support tax collection. The absence of a relation between tax changes and smuggling suggests that potential increases in the excise tax should not be discouraged by illicit trade. Finally, the identification of specific trade partners as primary sources for illicit trade may facilitate targeted efforts in cooperation with these governments to reduce illicit trade.
香烟走私降低了香烟价格，阻碍了对青少年获取香烟的限制，减少了政府收入，并削弱了税收降低消费的能力。烟草行业经常以更高的税收会引发更多走私为由反对提高烟草税。迄今为止，人们对菲律宾的走私规模知之甚少。这些信息对于有效应对非法贸易以及衡量税收变化和引入安全税标对非法贸易的影响至关重要。本研究采用两种差距差异方法来估计1994年至2009年期间菲律宾香烟非法贸易的规模。首先，将国内消费与已纳税销售额进行比较，以衡量非法香烟的消费情况。其次，将菲律宾记录的进口量与贸易伙伴对菲律宾的出口量进行比较，以衡量走私情况。在所有调查年份中，国内消费均低于已纳税销售额。这些差异的规模以及与2009年患病率调查的比较表明，吸烟情况在调查中存在大量漏报。在20世纪90年代末和21世纪中期，菲律宾经历了两次贸易差异的急剧下降，从1995年的7.5亿美元高位降至2008年的1.337亿美元低位。差异在1995年占国内市场的三分之一以上，但在2009年仅占10%。在这一时期，香港、新加坡和中国合起来占累计差异的80%以上，在2009年占差异的74%。存在巨大差异表明有必要实施有效的税标以及烟草追踪和溯源系统，以减少非法贸易并支持税收征管。税收变化与走私之间不存在关联，这表明消费税的潜在提高不应因非法贸易而受阻。最后，确定特定贸易伙伴为非法贸易的主要来源，可能有助于与这些政府合作开展有针对性的努力，以减少非法贸易。
