Ahsan Abdillah, Wiyono Nur Hadi, Setyonaluri Diahhadi, Denniston Ryan, So Anthony D
Demographic Institute Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia, N. Iskandar Building, 3rd Floor, University of Indonesia Campus, Depok, 16424, Indonesia.
Program on Global Health and Technology Access, Sanford School of Public Policy and Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC, 27708, USA.
Global Health. 2014 Nov 19;10:75. doi: 10.1186/s12992-014-0075-7.
Illicit cigarettes comprise more than 11% of tobacco consumption and 17% of consumption in low- and middle-income countries. Illicit cigarettes, defined as those that evade taxes, lower consumer prices, threaten national tobacco control efforts, and reduce excise tax collection.
This paper measures the magnitude of illicit cigarette consumption within Indonesia using two methods: the discrepancies between legal cigarette sales and domestic consumption estimated from surveys, and discrepancies between imports recorded by Indonesia and exports recorded by trade partners. Smuggling plays a minor role in the availability of illicit cigarettes because Indonesians predominantly consume kreteks, which are primarily manufactured in Indonesia.
Looking at the period from 1995 to 2013, illicit cigarettes first emerged in 2004. When no respondent under-reporting is assumed, illicit consumption makes up 17% of the domestic market in 2004, 9% in 2007, 11% in 2011, and 8% in 2013. Discrepancies in the trade data indicate that Indonesia was a recipient of smuggled cigarettes for each year between 1995 and 2012. The value of this illicit trade ranges from less than $1 million to nearly $50 million annually. Singapore, China, and Vietnam together accounted for nearly two-thirds of trade discrepancies over the period. Tax losses due to illicit consumption amount to between Rp 4.1 and 9.3 trillion rupiah, 4% to 13% of tobacco excise revenue, in 2011 and 2013.
Due to the predominance of kretek consumption in Indonesia and Indonesia's status as the predominant producer of kreteks, illicit domestic production is likely the most important source for illicit cigarettes, and initiatives targeted to combat this illicit production carry the promise of the greatest potential impact.
非法卷烟占烟草消费的比例超过11%，在低收入和中等收入国家占消费的17%。非法卷烟是指那些逃税的卷烟，它们降低了消费者价格，威胁到国家烟草控制工作，并减少了消费税征收。
本文采用两种方法来衡量印度尼西亚国内非法卷烟消费的规模：合法卷烟销售与调查估计的国内消费之间的差异，以及印度尼西亚记录的进口与贸易伙伴记录的出口之间的差异。由于印度尼西亚人主要消费丁香卷烟（kreteks），而丁香卷烟主要在印度尼西亚生产，因此走私在非法卷烟供应中所起的作用较小。
观察1995年至2013年期间，非法卷烟于2004年首次出现。在假设没有受访者少报的情况下，2004年非法消费占国内市场的17%，2007年为9%，2011年为11%，2013年为8%。贸易数据中的差异表明，1995年至2012年期间，印度尼西亚每年都是走私卷烟的接收国。这种非法贸易的价值每年从不到100万美元到近5000万美元不等。在此期间，新加坡、中国和越南合计占贸易差异的近三分之二。2011年和2013年，非法消费造成的税收损失达4100亿至9300亿印尼盾，占烟草消费税收入的4%至13%。
由于丁香卷烟在印度尼西亚消费中占主导地位，且印度尼西亚是丁香卷烟的主要生产国，国内非法生产可能是非法卷烟的最重要来源，针对打击这种非法生产的举措有望产生最大的潜在影响。
