Silva Fabrício Drummond, dos Santos Alcione Miranda, Corrêa Rita da Graça Carvalhal Frazão, Caldas Arlene de Jesus Mendes
Universidade Federal do Maranhão, São Luís, MA, Brasil,
Departamento de Enfermagem, UFMA, São Luís, MA, Brasil.
Cien Saude Colet. 2016 Feb;21(2):641-6. doi: 10.1590/1413-81232015212.09592015.
This study analyzed the relationship between rainfall, temperature and occurrence of dengue cases. Ecological study performed with autochthonous dengue cases reported during 2003 to 2010 in São Luís, Maranhão. Data of rainfall and temperature were collected monthly. The monthly incidence of dengue cases was calculated by year/100,000 inhabitants. In order to identify the influence of climate variables and dengue cases different distributed lag models using negative binomial distribution were considered. Model selection was based on the lowest AIC (Akaike Information Criterion). Thirteen thousand, four hundred forty-four cases of dengue between 2003 and 2010 were reported, with peaks in 2005, 2007 and 2010. The correlation between rainfall and the occurrence of dengue cases showed increase in the first months after the rainy months. Occurrence of dengue cases was observed during all the period of study. Only rainfall-lag per three months showed a positive association with the number of cases dengue. Thus, this municipality is considered as an endemic and epidemic site. In addition, the relation between rainfall and dengue cases was significant with a lag of three months. These results should be useful to the future development of politics healthy for dengue prevention and control.
本研究分析了降雨、温度与登革热病例发生之间的关系。对2003年至2010年在马拉尼昂州圣路易斯报告的本地登革热病例进行了生态学研究。每月收集降雨和温度数据。登革热病例的月发病率按年/10万居民计算。为了确定气候变量和登革热病例的影响，考虑了使用负二项分布的不同分布滞后模型。模型选择基于最低的AIC（赤池信息准则）。2003年至2010年共报告了13444例登革热病例，2005年、2007年和2010年出现高峰。降雨与登革热病例发生之间的相关性显示，在雨季过后的头几个月有所增加。在整个研究期间都观察到了登革热病例的发生。只有每三个月的降雨滞后与登革热病例数呈正相关。因此，该市被视为一个地方病和流行病发病地。此外，降雨与登革热病例之间的关系在三个月的滞后时具有显著性。这些结果对未来制定预防和控制登革热的健康政策应具有参考价值。
