Parasitic Diseases Laboratory, Tropical Medicine Program, Oswaldo Cruz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Hematozoan Transmitting Mosquito, Tropical Medicine Program, Oswaldo Cruz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
PLoS One. 2021 May 20;16(5):e0251403. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0251403. eCollection 2021.
Dengue is a re-emerging disease, currently considered the most important mosquito-borne arbovirus infection affecting humankind, taking into account both its morbidity and mortality. Brazil is considered an endemic country for dengue, such that more than 1,544,987 confirmed cases were notified in 2019, which means an incidence rate of 735 for every 100 thousand inhabitants. Climate is an important factor in the temporal and spatial distribution of vector-borne diseases, such as dengue. Thus, rainfall and temperature are considered macro-factors determinants for dengue, since they directly influence the population density of Aedes aegypti, which is subject to seasonal fluctuations, mainly due to these variables. This study examined the incidence of dengue fever related to the climate influence by using temperature and rainfall variables data obtained from remote sensing via artificial satellites in the metropolitan region of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The mathematical model that best fits the data is based on an auto-regressive moving average with exogenous inputs (ARMAX). It reproduced the values of incidence rates in the study period and managed to predict with good precision in a one-year horizon. The approach described in present work may be replicated in cities around the world by the public health managers, to build auxiliary operational tools for control and prevention tasks of dengue, as well of other arbovirus diseases.
登革热是一种重新出现的疾病，目前被认为是对人类影响最大的蚊媒病毒感染，考虑到其发病率和死亡率。巴西被认为是登革热的流行国家，2019 年报告了超过 1,544,987 例确诊病例，这意味着每 10 万人中有 735 人发病。气候是蚊媒疾病时间和空间分布的重要因素。因此，降雨和温度被认为是登革热的宏观因素决定因素，因为它们直接影响埃及伊蚊的种群密度，而埃及伊蚊的种群密度受季节性波动的影响，主要受这些变量的影响。本研究使用从巴西里约热内卢大都市区的人造卫星获得的遥感温度和降雨变量数据，研究了与气候影响相关的登革热发病率。最佳拟合数据的数学模型基于具有外生输入的自回归移动平均（ARMAX）。它再现了研究期间发病率的值，并成功地在一年的预测期内进行了高精度预测。本研究中描述的方法可以由公共卫生管理者在世界各地的城市中复制，以建立辅助的操作工具，用于控制和预防登革热和其他虫媒病毒病。
