Murray Emily T, Head Jenny, Shelton Nicola, Hagger-Johnson Gareth, Stansfeld Stephen, Zaninotto Paola, Stafford Mai
Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College London, London, UK
Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College London, London, UK.
Eur J Public Health. 2016 Jun;26(3):463-9. doi: 10.1093/eurpub/ckw005. Epub 2016 Feb 27.
In many developed countries, associations have been documented between higher levels of area unemployment and workforce exit, mainly for disability pension receipt. Health of individuals is assumed to be the primary driver of this relationship, but no study has examined whether health explains or modifies this relationship.
We used data from 98 756 Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study members who were aged 40-69 and working in 2001, to assess whether their odds of identifying as sick/disabled or retired in 2011 differed by local authority area unemployment in 2001, change in local area unemployment from 2001 to 2011 and individual reported health in 2001 (self-rated and limiting long-term illness).
Higher local area unemployment and worse self-rated health measures in 2001 were independently related to likelihood of identifying as sick-disabled or retired, compared to being in work, 10 years later, after adjusting for socio-demographic covariates. Associations for local area unemployment were stronger for likelihood of identification as sick/disabled compared to retired in 2011. Associations for changes in local area unemployment from 2001 to 2011 were only apparent for likelihood of identifying as retired. For respondents that identified as sick/disabled in 2011, effects of local area unemployment in 2001 were stronger for respondents who had better self-rated health in 2001.
Strategies to retain older workers may be most effective if targeted toward areas of high unemployment. For persons in ill health, local area unemployment interventions alone will not be as efficient in reducing their exit from the workforce.
在许多发达国家，已有文献记载地区失业率较高与劳动力退出之间存在关联，主要是领取残疾抚恤金方面。个人健康状况被认为是这种关系的主要驱动因素，但尚无研究考察健康状况是否能解释或改变这种关系。
我们使用了来自英国国家统计局纵向研究的98756名成员的数据，这些成员在2001年年龄为40 - 69岁且处于工作状态，以评估他们在2011年被认定为生病/残疾或退休的几率是否因2001年当地政府辖区的失业率、2001年至2011年当地失业率的变化以及2001年个人报告的健康状况（自我评估和长期限制疾病）而有所不同。
在调整社会人口统计学协变量后，2001年较高的当地失业率和较差的自我评估健康指标与10年后被认定为生病/残疾或退休的可能性独立相关，与仍在工作相比。2011年，与退休相比，当地失业率与被认定为生病/残疾的可能性之间的关联更强。2001年至2011年当地失业率的变化仅在被认定为退休的可能性方面明显。对于2011年被认定为生病/残疾的受访者，2001年当地失业率对2001年自我评估健康状况较好的受访者影响更强。
如果针对高失业率地区，保留老年工人的策略可能最有效。对于健康状况不佳的人，仅靠当地失业率干预在减少他们退出劳动力市场方面不会那么有效。
