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采用故障树方法分析中国广州车辆排放引起的雾霾污染的因果机制。

Causation mechanism analysis for haze pollution related to vehicle emission in Guangzhou, China by employing the fault tree approach.

机构信息

School of Chemistry and Environmental Engineering, Dongguan University of Technology, Dongguan, Guangdong 523808, PR China.

School of Chemistry and Environmental Engineering, Dongguan University of Technology, Dongguan, Guangdong 523808, PR China.

出版信息

Chemosphere. 2016 May;151:9-16. doi: 10.1016/j.chemosphere.2016.02.024. Epub 2016 Mar 15.

Abstract

Recently, China has frequently experienced large-scale, severe and persistent haze pollution due to surging urbanization and industrialization and a rapid growth in the number of motor vehicles and energy consumption. The vehicle emission due to the consumption of a large number of fossil fuels is no doubt a critical factor of the haze pollution. This work is focused on the causation mechanism of haze pollution related to the vehicle emission for Guangzhou city by employing the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) method for the first time. With the establishment of the fault tree system of "Haze weather-Vehicle exhausts explosive emission", all of the important risk factors are discussed and identified by using this deductive FTA method. The qualitative and quantitative assessments of the fault tree system are carried out based on the structure, probability and critical importance degree analysis of the risk factors. The study may provide a new simple and effective tool/strategy for the causation mechanism analysis and risk management of haze pollution in China.

摘要

近年来,由于城市化和工业化的快速发展,以及汽车数量和能源消耗的快速增长,中国频繁发生大规模、严重和持续的雾霾污染。大量化石燃料消耗导致的车辆排放无疑是雾霾污染的一个关键因素。本工作首次采用故障树分析(FTA)方法,研究与车辆排放有关的广州雾霾污染成因机制。通过建立“雾霾天气-车辆尾气爆炸排放”故障树系统,利用这种演绎的 FTA 方法讨论和识别所有重要的风险因素。基于风险因素的结构、概率和临界重要度分析,对故障树系统进行了定性和定量评估。该研究可能为中国雾霾污染成因机制分析和风险管理提供一种新的简单有效的工具/策略。

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