Role of Cattle Movements in Bovine Tuberculosis Spread in France between 2005 and 2014.

Live animal movements are a major transmission route for the spread of infectious agents such as Mycobacterium bovis, the main agent of bovine Tuberculosis (bTB). France became officially bTB-free in 2001, but M. bovis is still circulating in the cattle population, with about a hundred of outbreaks per year, most located in a few geographic areas. The aim of this study was to analyse the role of cattle movements in bTB spread in France between 2005 and 2014, using social network analysis and logistic regression models. At a global scale, the trade network was studied to assess the association between several centrality measures and bTB infection though a case-control analysis. The bTB infection status was associated with a higher in-degree (odds-ratio [OR] = 2.4 [1.1-5.4]) and with a higher ingoing contact chain (OR = 2.2 [1.0-4.7]). At a more local scale, a second case-control analysis was conducted to estimate the relative importance of cattle movements and spatial neighbourhood. Only direct purchase from infected herds was shown to be associated with bTB infection (OR = 2.9 [1.7-5.2]), spatial proximity to infected herds being the predominant risk factor, with decreasing ORs when distance increases. Indeed, the population attributable fraction was 12% [5%-18%] for cattle movements and 73% [68%-78%] for spatial neighbourhood. Based on these results, networks of potential effective contacts between herds were built and analysed for the three major spoligotypes reported in France. In these networks, the links representing cattle movements were associated with higher edge betweenness than those representing the spatial proximity between infected herds. They were often links connecting distinct communities and sometimes distinct geographical areas. Therefore, although their role was quantitatively lower than the one of spatial neighbourhood, cattle movements appear to have been essential in the French bTB dynamics between 2005 and 2014.