基于主体的移民模型中的决策制定：现状与挑战
Decision-Making in Agent-Based Models of Migration: State of the Art and Challenges.
作者信息
Klabunde Anna, Willekens Frans
机构信息
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Konrad-Zuse-Str. 1, 18057 Rostock, Germany.
出版信息
Eur J Popul. 2016;32(1):73-97. doi: 10.1007/s10680-015-9362-0. Epub 2016 Feb 15.
Abstract
We review agent-based models (ABM) of human migration with respect to their decision-making rules. The most prominent behavioural theories used as decision rules are the random utility theory, as implemented in the discrete choice model, and the theory of planned behaviour. We identify the critical choices that must be made in developing an ABM, namely the modelling of decision processes and social networks. We also discuss two challenges that hamper the widespread use of ABM in the study of migration and, more broadly, demography and the social sciences: (a) the choice and the operationalisation of a behavioural theory (decision-making and social interaction) and (b) the selection of empirical evidence to validate the model. We offer advice on how these challenges might be overcome.
摘要
我们根据基于主体的人类迁移模型（ABM）的决策规则对其进行综述。作为决策规则使用的最突出行为理论是离散选择模型中实施的随机效用理论以及计划行为理论。我们确定了开发ABM时必须做出的关键选择，即决策过程和社会网络的建模。我们还讨论了阻碍ABM在迁移研究以及更广泛的人口统计学和社会科学研究中广泛应用的两个挑战：（a）行为理论（决策和社会互动）的选择与实施，以及（b）用于验证模型的实证证据的选择。我们就如何克服这些挑战提供建议。
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