Smith V L, Kassin S M, Ellsworth P C
J Appl Psychol. 1989 Apr;74(2):356-9. doi: 10.1037/0021-9010.74.2.356.
Previous researchers using between-subjects comparisons have found eyewitness confidence and accuracy to be only negligibly correlated. In this study, we examined the predictive power of confidence in within-subject terms. Ninety-six subjects answered, and made confidence ratings for, a series of questions about a crime they witnessed. The average between-subjects and within-subject accuracy-confidence correlations were comparably low: r = .14 (p less than .001) and r = .17 (p less than .001), respectively. Confidence is neither a useful predictor of the accuracy of a particular witness nor of the accuracy of particular statements made by the same witness. Another possible predictor of accuracy, response latency, correlated only negligibly with accuracy (r = -.09 within subjects), but more strongly with confidence (r = -.27 within subjects). This pattern was obtained for both between-subjects and within-subject comparisons. The theoretical and practical implications of these results are discussed.
先前采用组间比较的研究人员发现，目击者的信心与准确性之间的相关性微乎其微。在本研究中，我们从个体内部的角度考察了信心的预测能力。96名受试者回答了一系列关于他们目击犯罪的问题，并对答案给出了信心评级。组间和个体内部准确性与信心的平均相关性都相当低：分别为r = 0.14（p小于0.001）和r = 0.17（p小于0.001）。信心既不是特定目击者准确性的有效预测指标，也不是同一目击者所作特定陈述准确性的有效预测指标。另一个可能的准确性预测指标——反应潜伏期，与准确性的相关性微乎其微（个体内部r = -0.09），但与信心的相关性更强（个体内部r = -0.27）。组间和个体内部比较均得到了这一模式。我们将讨论这些结果的理论和实际意义。
