India Epidemic Intelligence Service, India Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Delhi, India.
State Immunization Office, Uttarakhand, India.
Risk Anal. 2017 Jun;37(6):1063-1071. doi: 10.1111/risa.12615. Epub 2016 Apr 18.
Measles is a leading cause of child mortality, and reduction of child mortality is a key Millennium Development Goal. In 2014, the World Health Organization and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention developed a measles programmatic risk assessment tool to support country measles elimination efforts. The tool was pilot tested in the State of Uttarakhand in August 2014 to assess its utility in India. The tool assessed measles risk for the 13 districts of Uttarakhand as a function of indicator scores in four categories: population immunity, surveillance quality, program delivery performance, and threat. The highest potential overall score was 100. Scores from each category were totaled to assign an overall risk score for each district. From this risk score, districts were categorized as low, medium, high, or very high risk. Of the 13 districts in Uttarakhand in 2014, the tool classified one district (Haridwar) as very high risk and three districts (Almora, Champawat, and Pauri Garhwal) as high risk. The measles risk in these four districts was largely due to low population immunity from high MCV1-MCV2 drop-out rates, low MCV1 and MCV2 coverage, and the lack of a supplementary immunization activity (SIA) within the past three years. This tool can be used to support measles elimination in India by identifying districts that might be at risk for measles outbreaks, and to guide risk mitigation efforts, including strengthening routine immunization services and implementing SIAs.
麻疹是导致儿童死亡的主要原因之一,降低儿童死亡率是千年发展目标的关键指标。2014 年,世界卫生组织和美国疾病控制与预防中心开发了一种麻疹规划风险评估工具,以支持各国消除麻疹的努力。该工具于 2014 年 8 月在北阿坎德邦进行了试点测试,以评估其在印度的实用性。该工具根据四个类别(人口免疫、监测质量、规划执行情况和威胁)的指标得分,评估了北阿坎德邦 13 个地区的麻疹风险。最高潜在总分为 100 分。将每个类别的得分相加,为每个地区分配一个总体风险得分。根据这一风险得分,地区被分为低、中、高或极高风险。在 2014 年北阿坎德邦的 13 个地区中,该工具将一个地区(哈里德瓦尔)归类为极高风险,三个地区(阿尔莫拉、尚帕瓦特和巴鲁利加尔瓦尔)为高风险。这四个地区的麻疹风险主要是由于高 MCV1-MCV2 辍学率、低 MCV1 和 MCV2 覆盖率以及过去三年缺乏补充免疫活动导致的人口免疫率低。该工具可用于支持印度消除麻疹,识别可能面临麻疹暴发风险的地区,并指导风险缓解工作,包括加强常规免疫服务和实施补充免疫活动。