Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Environmental and Occupational Hazards Control Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
BMC Infect Dis. 2024 Oct 5;24(1):1108. doi: 10.1186/s12879-024-09834-8.
Despite successful efforts to eliminate measles in Iran, imported measles cases continue to be reported. Because measles is endemic in neighboring countries. This research aims to evaluate the risk of measles transmission in different regions of Iran.
Measles case-based surveillance data of the Expanded Program of Immunization containing 31 provinces and 463 districts from 2019 to 2021 were assessed. The WHO Measles Programmatic Risk Assessment tool was used to evaluate the risk of disease transmission in four domains: population immunity, surveillance quality, program delivery performance, and threat assessment. scores were categorized as low, medium, high, or very high risk.
During 2019-2021, the average incidence of measles was 1.9 per 1 million. Chabahar and Mashhad with 76 and ./6per million reported the highest and lowest incidence respectively. All 463 districts were categorized as low risk in risk assessment. Andimeshk, Chabahar, and Bojnurd obtained the highest risk scores with 27, 24, and 25 respectively. All districts were classified as low risk for population immunity. The average coverage of (MMR1) and (MMR2) was 95% or higher. All districts received the minimum points for surveillance quality.
All regions are placed at a low level of disease transmission risk. However, the tool is not able to assess the risk at the rural or peripheral sectors level. The indicators used in this tool are the same for all countries with different epidemiological features (elimination, endemic). Sensitivity analysis can optimize the use of this tool for countries with different disease conditions.
尽管伊朗在消除麻疹方面取得了成功，但仍有输入性麻疹病例报告。由于麻疹在邻国流行。本研究旨在评估伊朗不同地区麻疹传播的风险。
评估了 2019 年至 2021 年包含 31 个省份和 463 个区的扩大免疫规划麻疹病例监测数据。使用世界卫生组织麻疹规划风险评估工具，从人群免疫、监测质量、规划实施绩效和威胁评估四个领域评估疾病传播风险。评分分为低、中、高或极高风险。
2019-2021 年，麻疹平均发病率为每百万人 1.9 例。恰巴哈尔和马什哈德的发病率分别为每百万 76 例和./6 例，报告发病率最高和最低。463 个区在风险评估中均被归类为低风险区。安狄米什赫、恰巴哈尔和博尔努尔德的风险评分最高，分别为 27、24 和 25。所有地区的人群免疫风险均被归类为低风险。（MMR1）和（MMR2）的平均覆盖率为 95%或更高。所有地区的监测质量均获得最低分数。
所有地区的疾病传播风险均处于低水平。然而，该工具无法评估农村或偏远地区的风险。该工具使用的指标对具有不同流行病学特征（消除、流行）的所有国家都是相同的。敏感性分析可以优化该工具在具有不同疾病状况的国家的使用。
