Department of Infectious Disease Control, Tianjin Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin, China.
Rev Med Virol. 2016 Sep;26(5):309-13. doi: 10.1002/rmv.1887. Epub 2016 May 2.
The 2009 AH1N1 pandemic became a global health concern, although fortunately, its worst anticipated effects were not realised. While the origins of such outbreaks remain poorly understood, it is very important to identify the precipitating factors in their emergence so that future pandemics can be detected as quickly as possible. Methords: Descriptive epidemiology was used to analyse the association between influenza pandemics and possible pandemics and relative number of sunspots. Non-conditional logistic regression was performed to analyse the statistical association between sunspot extremes and influenza pandemics to within plus or minus 1 year.
Almost all recorded influenza/possible pandemics have occurred in time frames corresponding to sunspot extremes, or +/- 1 year within such extremes. These periods were identified as important risk factors in both possible and confirmed influenza pandemics (odds ratio: 3.87; 95% confidence interval: 1.08 to 13.85).
Extremes of sunspot activity to within plus or minus 1 year may precipitate influenza pandemics. Mechanisms of epidemic initiation and early spread are discussed including primary causation by externally derived viral variants (from space via cometary dust). Efforts to construct a comprehensive early warning system for potential influenza and other viral pandemics that include analysis of sunspot activity and stratospheric sampling for viral variants should be supported. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
2009 年的甲型 H1N1 流感大流行成为全球关注的健康问题，尽管幸运的是，其最预期的影响并未实现。虽然此类疫情的起源仍了解甚少，但识别其出现的促成因素非常重要，以便尽快发现未来的大流行。方法：采用描述性流行病学方法分析流感大流行和可能的大流行与太阳黑子相对数之间的关系。采用非条件逻辑回归分析太阳黑子极值与流感大流行之间的统计关系，时间范围为正负 1 年。
几乎所有记录的流感/可能的大流行都发生在与太阳黑子极值相对应的时间框架内，或在极值正负 1 年内。这些时期被确定为可能和确诊的流感大流行中的重要危险因素（优势比：3.87；95%置信区间：1.08 至 13.85）。
太阳黑子活动极值正负 1 年内可能引发流感大流行。讨论了疫情爆发和早期传播的机制，包括外部来源的病毒变异（通过彗星尘埃从太空）的主要致病作用。应支持努力构建一个包括太阳黑子活动分析和对病毒变异的平流层采样的综合潜在流感和其他病毒大流行预警系统。版权所有 © 2016 约翰威立父子公司
