National Institute of Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology (NIGEB), Tehran, Iran.
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Urmia University of Technology (UUT), P.O. Box: 57166-419, Urmia, Iran.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Jul;28(28):38074-38084. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-13249-2. Epub 2021 Mar 16.
The number of sunspots shows the solar activity level. During the high solar activity, emissions of matter and electromagnetic fields from the Sun make it difficult for cosmic rays to penetrate the Earth. When solar energy is high, cosmic ray intensity is lower, so that the solar magnetic field and solar winds affect the Earth externally and originate new viruses. In this paper, we assess the possible effects of sunspot numbers on the world virus appearance. The literature has no sufficient results about these phenomena. Therefore, we try to relate solar ray extremum to virus generation and the history of pandemics. First, wavelet decomposition is used for smoothing the sunspot cycle to predict past pandemics and forecast the future time of possible virus generation. Finally, we investigate the geographical appearance of the virus in the world to show vulnerable places in the world. The result of the analysis of pandemics that occurred from 1750 to 2020 shows that world's great viral pandemics like COVID-19 coincide with the relative extrema of sunspot number. Based on our result, 27 pandemic (from 36) incidences are on sunspot extrema. Then, we forecast future pandemics in the world for about 110 years or 10 cycles using presented multi-step autoregression (MSAR). To confirm these phenomena and the generation of new viruses because of solar activity, researchers should carry out experimental studies.
太阳黑子数量显示了太阳活动水平。在太阳活动高峰期，太阳会向外喷发物质和电磁场，这使得宇宙射线难以穿透地球。当太阳能较高时，宇宙射线强度较低，从而使太阳磁场和太阳风对外界地球产生影响，并引发新的病毒。在本文中，我们评估了太阳黑子数量对世界病毒出现的可能影响。关于这些现象，文献中没有足够的结果。因此，我们尝试将太阳射线极值与病毒产生和大流行病的历史联系起来。首先，我们使用小波分解对太阳黑子周期进行平滑处理，以预测过去的大流行病，并预测未来可能发生病毒的时间。最后，我们研究了世界范围内病毒的地理出现情况，以显示世界上易受攻击的地方。对 1750 年至 2020 年发生的大流行病的分析结果表明，像 COVID-19 这样的世界大病毒性大流行病与太阳黑子数的相对极值一致。根据我们的结果，在 36 次大流行病中，有 27 次（从 36 次）发生在太阳黑子极值上。然后，我们使用提出的多步自回归（MSAR）对未来大约 110 年或 10 个周期的世界大流行病进行了预测。为了证实这些现象和由于太阳活动而产生的新病毒，研究人员应该进行实验研究。
