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对抗登革热的最佳驱蚊剂使用方法

Optimal Repellent Usage to Combat Dengue Fever.

作者信息

Dorsett Chasity, Oh Hyunju, Paulemond Marie Laura, Rychtář Jan

机构信息

Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Bennett College, Greensboro, NC, 27401, USA.

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Greensboro, NC, 27402-6170, USA.

出版信息

Bull Math Biol. 2016 May;78(5):916-22. doi: 10.1007/s11538-016-0167-z. Epub 2016 May 3.

Abstract

Dengue fever is one of the most important vector-borne diseases. It is transmitted by Aedes Stegomyia aegypti, and one of the most effective strategies to combat the disease is the reduction of exposure to bites of these mosquitoes. In this paper, we present a game-theoretical model in which individuals choose their own level of protection against mosquito bites in order to maximize their own benefits, effectively balancing the cost of protection and the risk of contracting the dengue fever. We find that even when the usage of protection is strictly voluntary, as soon as the cost of protection is about 10,000 times less than the cost of contracting dengue fever, the optimal level of protection will be within 5 % of the level needed for herd immunity.

摘要

登革热是最重要的病媒传播疾病之一。它由埃及伊蚊传播,而对抗该疾病最有效的策略之一是减少被这些蚊子叮咬的几率。在本文中,我们提出了一个博弈论模型,其中个体选择自己预防蚊虫叮咬的保护水平,以实现自身利益最大化,有效平衡保护成本和感染登革热的风险。我们发现,即使保护措施的使用是完全自愿的,一旦保护成本比感染登革热的成本低约10000倍,保护的最优水平将在群体免疫所需水平的5%以内。

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