Wang Lianwen, Zhou Da, Liu Zhijun, Xu Dashun, Zhang Xinan
a School of Mathematics and Statistics , Central China Normal University , Wuhan , People's Republic of China.
b School of Mathematical Sciences , Xiamen University , Xiamen , People's Republic of China.
J Biol Dyn. 2017 Mar;11(sup1):120-137. doi: 10.1080/17513758.2016.1181212. Epub 2016 May 4.
In general, media coverage would not be implemented unless the number of infected cases reaches some critical number. To reflect this feature, we incorporate the media effect and a critical number of infected cases into the disease transmission rate and consider an susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model with logistic growth. Our model analysis shows that early media alert and strong media effects are preferable to decrease the numbers of infected cases at endemic equilibria. Furthermore, we noticed that the model may have up to three endemic equilibria and bi-stability can occur in a threshold interval for the critical number. Note that the interval depends on parameters for the focal disease and the media effect. It is possible to roughly estimate the interval for re-emerging diseases in a given region. Therefore, the result could be useful to health policymakers. Global stability is also obtained when the model admits a unique endemic equilibrium.
一般来说，除非感染病例数达到某个临界值，否则不会实施媒体报道。为反映这一特征，我们将媒体效应和感染病例的临界数量纳入疾病传播率，并考虑一个具有逻辑斯蒂增长的易感-感染-易感流行病模型。我们的模型分析表明，早期媒体警报和强大的媒体效应更有利于在地方病平衡点处减少感染病例数。此外，我们注意到该模型可能有多达三个地方病平衡点，并且在临界数量的阈值区间内可能会出现双稳态。请注意，该区间取决于所关注疾病的参数和媒体效应。在给定区域内大致估计再发疾病的区间是可能的。因此，该结果可能对卫生政策制定者有用。当模型存在唯一的地方病平衡点时，也能得到全局稳定性。
