Azose Jonathan J, Ševčíková Hana, Raftery Adrian E
Department of Statistics, Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195.
Department of Statistics, Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2016 Jun 7;113(23):6460-5. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1606119113. Epub 2016 May 23.
We produce probabilistic projections of population for all countries based on probabilistic projections of fertility, mortality, and migration. We compare our projections to those from the United Nations' Probabilistic Population Projections, which uses similar methods for fertility and mortality but deterministic migration projections. We find that uncertainty in migration projection is a substantial contributor to uncertainty in population projections for many countries. Prediction intervals for the populations of Northern America and Europe are over 70% wider, whereas prediction intervals for the populations of Africa, Asia, and the world as a whole are nearly unchanged. Out-of-sample validation shows that the model is reasonably well calibrated.
我们基于生育率、死亡率和移民的概率预测，对所有国家的人口进行概率预测。我们将我们的预测与联合国概率人口预测的结果进行比较，后者在生育率和死亡率方面采用了类似的方法，但移民预测是确定性的。我们发现，移民预测的不确定性是许多国家人口预测不确定性的一个重要因素。北美和欧洲人口的预测区间宽了70%以上，而非洲、亚洲和全球人口的预测区间几乎没有变化。样本外验证表明，该模型校准得相当不错。
