Abbey D E, Euler G L, Moore J K, Petersen F, Hodgkin J E, Magie A R
JAPCA. 1989 Apr;39(4):437-45. doi: 10.1080/08940630.1989.10466542.
A method for setting air quality standards for long-term cumulative exposures of a population based on epidemiological studies has been developed. It uses exposure estimates interpolated from monitoring stations to zip code centroids, each month applied to zip code by month residence histories of the population. Two alternative cumulative exposure indices are used--hours in excess of a threshold, and the sum of concentrations above a threshold. The indices are then used with multiple logistic regression models for the health outcome data to form dose response curves for relative risk, adjusting for covariates. These curves are useful for determination of at what exposure amounts and threshold levels, effects which have both statistical and public health significance begin to occur. The method is applied to a ten year follow-up of a sub cohort of 7,343 members of the National Cancer Institute-funded Adventist Health Study. Up to 20 years of residence history was available. Analysis for prevalence of symptoms was conducted for four air pollutants--total oxidants, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, and total suspended particulates. For each pollutant, cumulated exposures were calculated above each of five different thresholds. Statistically significant effects were noted for total suspended particulates, total oxidants, sulfur dioxide, past and passive smoking.
已开发出一种基于流行病学研究为人群长期累积暴露设定空气质量标准的方法。它利用从监测站插值到邮政编码中心区域的暴露估计值，每月根据人群的逐月居住历史应用于各个邮政编码区域。使用了两种替代累积暴露指数——超过阈值的小时数以及高于阈值的浓度总和。然后将这些指数与健康结果数据的多元逻辑回归模型一起使用，以形成相对风险的剂量反应曲线，并对协变量进行调整。这些曲线有助于确定在何种暴露量和阈值水平下，具有统计学和公共卫生意义的效应开始出现。该方法应用于美国国立癌症研究所资助的基督复临安息日会健康研究中7343名成员的一个亚队列的十年随访。有长达20年的居住历史数据可用。对四种空气污染物——总氧化剂、二氧化硫、二氧化氮和总悬浮颗粒物的症状患病率进行了分析。对于每种污染物，计算了在五个不同阈值之上的累积暴露量。总悬浮颗粒物、总氧化剂、二氧化硫、既往吸烟和被动吸烟均有统计学显著效应。
