Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Waste Manag. 2016 Oct;56:547-60. doi: 10.1016/j.wasman.2016.05.019. Epub 2016 May 31.
Inappropriate waste disposal is a serious issue in many urban neighborhoods, exacerbating environmental, rodent, and public health problems. Governments all over the world have been developing interventions to reduce inappropriate waste disposal. A system dynamics model is proposed to quantify the impacts of interventions on residential waste related behavior. In contrast to other models of municipal solid waste management, the structure of our model is based on sociological and economic studies on how incentives and social norms interactively affect waste disposal behavior, and its parameterization is informed by field work. A case study of low-income urban neighborhoods in Baltimore, MD, USA is presented. The simulation results show the effects of individual interventions, and also identify positive interactions among some potential interventions, especially information and incentive-based policies, as well as their limitations. The model can help policy analysts identify the most promising intervention packages, and then field test those few, rather than having to pilot test all combinations. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate large uncertainties about behavioral responses to some interventions, showing where information from survey research and social experiments would improve policy making.
不恰当的废物处理是许多城市社区的一个严重问题，加剧了环境、啮齿动物和公共卫生问题。世界各国政府一直在制定干预措施，以减少不恰当的废物处理。本文提出了一个系统动力学模型，以量化干预措施对居民与废物相关行为的影响。与其他城市固体废物管理模型不同，我们的模型结构基于关于激励措施和社会规范如何相互作用影响废物处理行为的社会学和经济学研究，其参数化是通过实地工作提供信息的。本文介绍了美国马里兰州巴尔的摩市低收入城市社区的案例研究。模拟结果显示了个别干预措施的效果，还确定了一些潜在干预措施之间的积极相互作用，特别是基于信息和激励的政策，以及它们的局限性。该模型可以帮助政策分析人员确定最有前途的干预方案包，然后对其中少数方案进行实地测试，而不必对所有组合进行试点测试。敏感性分析表明，对某些干预措施的行为反应存在很大的不确定性，表明调查研究和社会实验的信息将在哪里改善决策制定。
