Nature. 2016 Jul 21;535(7612):416-9. doi: 10.1038/nature18607. Epub 2016 Jun 15.
Ongoing declines in the structure and function of the world’s coral reefs require novel approaches to sustain these ecosystems and the millions of people who depend on them3. A presently unexplored approach that draws on theory and practice in human health and rural development is to systematically identify and learn from the ‘outliers’—places where ecosystems are substantially better (‘bright spots’) or worse (‘dark spots’) than expected, given the environmental conditions and socioeconomic drivers they are exposed to. Here we compile data from more than 2,500 reefs worldwide and develop a Bayesian hierarchical model to generate expectations of how standing stocks of reef fish biomass are related to 18 socioeconomic drivers and environmental conditions. We identify 15 bright spots and 35 dark spots among our global survey of coral reefs, defined as sites that have biomass levels more than two standard deviations from expectations. Importantly, bright spots are not simply comprised of remote areas with low fishing pressure; they include localities where human populations and use of ecosystem resources is high, potentially providing insights into how communities have successfully confronted strong drivers of change. Conversely, dark spots are not necessarily the sites with the lowest absolute biomass and even include some remote, uninhabited locations often considered near pristine6. We surveyed local experts about social, institutional, and environmental conditions at these sites to reveal that bright spots are characterized by strong sociocultural institutions such as customary taboos and marine tenure, high levels of local engagement in management, high dependence on marine resources, and beneficial environmental conditions such as deep-water refuges. Alternatively, dark spots are characterized by intensive capture and storage technology and a recent history of environmental shocks. Our results suggest that investments in strengthening fisheries governance, particularly aspects such as participation and property rights, could facilitate innovative conservation actions that help communities defy expectations of global reef degradation.
世界珊瑚礁的结构和功能持续衰退，因此需要创新方法来维持这些生态系统和依赖它们的数百万人的生计。目前有一种尚未被探索的方法，它借鉴了人类健康和农村发展方面的理论和实践，即系统地识别和学习“异常值”——这些地方的生态系统明显好于（“亮点”）或差于（“暗点”）预期，考虑到它们所面临的环境条件和社会经济驱动因素。在这里，我们汇总了来自全球 2500 多个珊瑚礁的数据，并开发了一个贝叶斯层次模型，以生成对珊瑚礁鱼类生物量存量与 18 个社会经济驱动因素和环境条件之间关系的预期。在对全球珊瑚礁的调查中，我们确定了 15 个亮点和 35 个暗点，这些亮点和暗点是指生物量水平比预期高出两个标准差的地点。重要的是，亮点不仅仅是由捕鱼压力低的偏远地区组成；它们还包括人类人口和生态系统资源利用程度高的地方，这可能为我们提供了有关社区如何成功应对强大变化驱动因素的见解。相反，暗点不一定是绝对生物量最低的地点，甚至包括一些偏远的无人居住的地方，这些地方通常被认为接近原始状态。我们调查了这些地点的当地专家，了解其社会、机构和环境条件，结果表明，亮点的特点是拥有强大的社会文化机构，如传统禁忌和海洋保有权、高水平的地方参与管理、对海洋资源的高度依赖以及有利的环境条件，如深水区避难所。相比之下，暗点的特点是密集的捕捞和储存技术以及最近的环境冲击历史。我们的研究结果表明，投资于加强渔业治理，特别是参与和产权等方面，可能有助于采取创新的保护行动，帮助社区抵御全球珊瑚礁退化的预期。
