Projecting the Impact of the Affordable Care Act Provisions on Accessibility and Availability of Primary Care Providers for the Adult Population in Georgia.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate how met need for accessibility and availability of primary care among nonelderly individuals in Georgia will be affected by the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) over the next 10 years.

METHODS

We used a stock-and-flow model to predict the number of available visits from 2013 to 2025, regression models to project needed visits, and an optimization model to estimate met need. The outputs of these models were used to estimate unmet need and the availability and accessibility of primary care.

RESULTS

Our findings showed that the number of primary care providers will increase by 9.2% to 11.7% by 2025 and that the number of needed visits will increase by 20%. Under Medicaid expansion, the percentage of met need will increase from 67% to 80%. Accessibility will improve by 20% under expansion, and availability will decrease by 13% to 19% under expansion.

CONCLUSIONS

The ACAs' provisions will reduce unmet need and positively affect accessibility while reducing availability in some communities. Increased need because of a larger Medicaid population under Medicaid expansion will not be a significant burden on the privately insured population.