Blau D M, Robins P K
Department of Economics, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill 27599-3305.
Demography. 1989 May;26(2):287-99.
A sample of labor-market and birth histories is used to estimate the effects of child-care costs on employment and fertility decisions. A reduced-form empirical analysis is performed, which is based on hazard functions for transitions among various fertility--employment states. Higher child-care costs result in a lower birth rate for nonemployed women but not for employed women. Higher child-care costs also lead to an increase in the rate of leaving employment and a reduction in the rate of entering employment. The results suggest that potential behavioral effects of child-care subsidies could be significant and should be taken into account when alternative child-care policies are being debated.
利用一份劳动力市场和生育史样本，来估计育儿成本对就业和生育决策的影响。进行了一种简化形式的实证分析，该分析基于不同生育-就业状态之间转换的风险函数。较高的育儿成本导致未就业女性的生育率降低，但对就业女性则不然。较高的育儿成本还会导致离职率上升和入职率下降。结果表明，育儿补贴的潜在行为影响可能很大，在讨论替代育儿政策时应予以考虑。
