Verification of Inspection Standards and Efficacy of a Systems Approach for Thaumatotibia leucotreta (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) for Export Citrus From South Africa.

A systems approach has been developed for mitigation of risk associated with Thaumatotibia leucotreta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), in citrus fruit exported from South Africa, as an alternative to a stand-alone cold treatment. This study was undertaken to assess compliance with inspection standards applicable to various steps within the systems approach and to determine its overall efficacy. Larval infestation of fruit was monitored weekly in fruit from 33 orchards, until the time of harvest, postpicking, and postpacking into export cartons. Significant positive regressions were recorded between infestation of fruit during the full monitoring period in the orchard and the last 4 wk before harvest, between the last 4 wk before harvest and on delivery to the packinghouse, and on delivery to the packinghouse and in the packed carton. There was an improvement in the level of compliance with each of these successive steps in the system, thus verifying that the grading and inspection thresholds were appropriately sensitive and confirmed the effectiveness of the system. The overall risk mitigation efficacy of the systems approach was calculated. The calculation included several known compounding under estimations of efficacy. Nonetheless, the proportion of fruit that could be infested with T. leucotreta after application of the systems approach was between P ≤ 5.328 × 10(-6) and P ≤ 8.380 × 10(-7), 6-38 times less than the proportion associated with the probit 9 (P ≤ 3.2 × 10(-5)) standard for a stand-alone cold treatment, being three survivors in 100,000 at the 95% confidence level.