Bragard Claude, Di Serio Francesco, Gonthier Paolo, Jaques Miret Josep Anton, Fejer Justesen Annemarie, MacLeod Alan, Sven Magnusson Christer, Navas-Cortes Juan A, Parnell Stephen, Potting Roel, Reignault Philippe Lucien, Thulke Hans-Hermann, Van der Werf Wopke, Vicent Civera Antonio, Yuen Jonathan, Zappalà Lucia, Lucchi Andrea, Tena Alejandro, Mosbach-Schulz Olaf, de la Peña Eduardo, Milonas Panagiotis
EFSA J. 2021 Aug 19;19(8):e06799. doi: 10.2903/j.efsa.2021.6799. eCollection 2021 Aug.
The European Commission requested to the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to evaluate a dossier from South Africa where the application of the systems approach to mitigate the risk of entry of the false codling moth, (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), into the EU when trading citrus fruits is explained. After collecting additional evidence from the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development of South Africa, and reviewing the published literature, the Panel performed an assessment on the likelihood of pest freedom for on citrus fruits at the point of entry in the EU considering the proposed systems approach. An expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom following the evaluation of the risk mitigation measures on , including any uncertainties. There are three options (i.e. A, B and C) within the systems approach followed in South Africa that differentiate mainly in the sampling intensity in the field and the packing house as well as in temperature conditions during shipment. Therefore, three independent elicitations were conducted, one for each option. The main uncertainties were: (1) whether sampling once per orchard is representative for subsequent harvests (within 4 weeks) from the same orchard; (2) the correct implementation of the temperature regimes during shipment; (3) the mortality rate in fruit estimated for the different temperature regimes. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated with 95% certainty that 9,182 out of 10,000 pallets for option A, 8,478 out of 10,000 pallets for option B, and 9,743 out of 10,000 pallets for option C will be free from . In light of the additional information provided by South Africa once the elicitations were performed, it became apparent that the setting temperature during shipment was not achieved in 12 out of 14 cases of interceptions. Therefore, there is increased uncertainty on pest freedom. The Panel identified the weaknesses associated with the risk mitigation measures in the systems approach and made recommendations that could increase its effectiveness.
欧盟委员会要求欧洲食品安全局植物健康小组评估一份来自南非的档案，其中解释了在柑橘类水果贸易中应用系统方法降低伪苹果蠹蛾（鳞翅目：卷蛾科）进入欧盟风险的情况。在从南非农业、土地改革和农村发展部收集额外证据并查阅已发表文献后，小组根据提议的系统方法，对欧盟入境点的柑橘类水果上无有害生物的可能性进行了评估。在评估包括任何不确定性在内的针对伪苹果蠹蛾的风险缓解措施后，给出了关于无有害生物可能性的专家判断。南非采用的系统方法中有三种选择（即A、B和C），主要区别在于田间和包装厂的抽样强度以及运输过程中的温度条件。因此，针对每种选择进行了三次独立的专家意见征集。主要的不确定性包括：（1）每个果园采样一次是否能代表同一果园后续收获（4周内）的情况；（2）运输过程中温度制度的正确实施；（3）不同温度制度下水果的死亡率。专家知识征集表明，在95%的置信度下，选项A的10000个托盘中有9182个、选项B的10000个托盘中有8478个、选项C的10000个托盘中有9743个将无伪苹果蠹蛾。在进行专家意见征集后，根据南非提供的额外信息，很明显在14次拦截案例中有12次未达到运输过程中的设定温度。因此，无有害生物的不确定性增加。小组确定了系统方法中与风险缓解措施相关的弱点，并提出了可提高其有效性的建议。
