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《巴黎协定》气候提案需要进一步推动,才能将升温控制在 2°C 以下。

Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C.

机构信息

ENE Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.

Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.

出版信息

Nature. 2016 Jun 30;534(7609):631-9. doi: 10.1038/nature18307.

Abstract

The Paris climate agreement aims at holding global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to "pursue efforts" to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To accomplish this, countries have submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their post-2020 climate action. Here we assess the effect of current INDCs on reducing aggregate greenhouse gas emissions, its implications for achieving the temperature objective of the Paris climate agreement, and potential options for overachievement. The INDCs collectively lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to where current policies stand, but still imply a median warming of 2.6-3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100. More can be achieved, because the agreement stipulates that targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are strengthened over time, both in ambition and scope. Substantial enhancement or over-delivery on current INDCs by additional national, sub-national and non-state actions is required to maintain a reasonable chance of meeting the target of keeping warming well below 2 degrees Celsius.

摘要

《巴黎协定》旨在将全球升温幅度控制在 2 摄氏度以下,并“努力”将其控制在 1.5 摄氏度以内。为此,各国提交了包含其 2020 年后气候行动的“国家自主贡献”(INDC)。在此,我们评估了当前 INDC 对减少温室气体排放总量的影响,及其对实现《巴黎协定》温度目标的影响,以及超额完成目标的潜在选择。这些 INDC 与当前政策相比,降低了温室气体排放,但仍意味着到 2100 年,全球平均升温 2.6-3.1 摄氏度。还可以取得更多成果,因为该协议规定,随着时间的推移,温室气体减排目标应在雄心和范围上都得到加强。需要通过国家、次国家和非国家行动的进一步加强或超额履行当前的 INDC,以保持将升温幅度控制在 2 摄氏度以下的目标的合理机会。

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