Duan Chao, Motter Adilson E
School of Electrical Engineering, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China.
Department of Physics and Astronomy, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, USA.
Nat Commun. 2025 Aug 6;16(1):7242. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-61976-8.
Averting catastrophic global warming requires decisive action to decarbonize key sectors. Vehicle electrification, alongside renewable energy integration, is a long-term strategy toward zero carbon emissions. However, transitioning to fully renewable electricity may take decades-during which electric vehicles may still rely on carbon-intensive electricity. We analyze the critical role of the transmission network in enabling or constraining emissions reduction from U.S. vehicle electrification. Our models reveal that the available transmission capacity severely limits potential CO emissions reduction. With adequate transmission, full electrification could nearly eliminate vehicle operational CO emissions once renewable generation reaches the existing nonrenewable capacity. In contrast, the current grid would support only a fraction of that benefit. Achieving the full emissions reduction potential of vehicle electrification during this transition will require a moderate but targeted increase in transmission capacity. Our findings underscore the pressing need to enhance transmission infrastructure to unlock the climate benefits of large-scale electrification and renewable integration.
避免灾难性的全球变暖需要采取果断行动，使关键部门脱碳。车辆电气化与可再生能源整合一样，是实现零碳排放的长期战略。然而，向完全可再生电力过渡可能需要数十年时间，在此期间电动汽车可能仍依赖碳密集型电力。我们分析了输电网络在促进或限制美国车辆电气化减排方面的关键作用。我们的模型表明，可用输电容量严重限制了潜在的一氧化碳减排量。如果有足够的输电能力，一旦可再生能源发电量达到现有的不可再生能源发电量，全面电气化几乎可以消除车辆运行产生的一氧化碳排放。相比之下，当前电网只能支持这一效益的一小部分。要在这一过渡期间充分实现车辆电气化的减排潜力，需要适度但有针对性地增加输电容量。我们的研究结果强调，迫切需要加强输电基础设施，以释放大规模电气化和可再生能源整合带来的气候效益。
